{"id": "1217072896811401223", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "msg": "169\nWTPZ45 KNHC 082032\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n300 PM CST Thu Oct 08 2026\n \nSimon is almost a hurricane. The storm continues to have a very \ncompact inner core with some signs of an eye becoming apparent in \nsatellite images. There are also numerous spiral bands beyond the \ninner core region, with the outermost band in the far northeast \nquadrant still affecting portions of southwestern Mexico. The latest \nsatellite intensity estimates have increased a little from earlier \nand now range from about 50 to 65 kt. Based on that data, the \ninitial intensity is nudged up to 60 kt. A 17Z ASCAT-C pass was used \nto adjust the initial wind radii.\n \nThe tropical storm is moving slowly westward at about 5 kt, steered \nby a weak mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the northwest is \nexpected tonight or early Friday, followed by a northward motion \nlater that day when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward, in \nresponse to an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Although the \nmodels generally agree on the large-scale steering pattern \nevolution, there are very important differences in where and when \nthe system makes that turn. There has been a notable shift to the \neast this cycle, and given the westward bias often seen in the \nmodels for this region, the NHC track forecast has been again nudged \neastward. It should be noted that the best-performing models of the \nyear so far are east of the official forecast, and additional \nadjustments might be needed if this trend continues. This forecast \nbrings the core of the system inland over southwestern and \nwest-central Mexico Saturday afternoon or Saturday night.\n \nSimon is in near ideal environmental conditions of low wind shear,\nhigh moisture, and over very warm waters. The SHIPS model shows more\nthan a 70 percent chance that the system will rapidly intensify over\nthe next 24 hours. In fact, the storm's compact inner core structure\nmakes it even more likely that it will capitalize on the favorable\nconditions. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to call\nfor rapid strengthening into a very dangerous category 4 hurricane\nbefore Simon reaches the coast of west-central Mexico. This forecast\nlies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the\nHCCA model.\n \nBased on the new forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a \nHurricane Warning for a portion of the coast of southwestern and \nwest-central Mexico.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Simon is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by tonight and \napproach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major hurricane on \nSaturday.\n\n2. Life-threatening wind and storm surge impacts are expected along \na portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane \nWarning is now in effect from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. \nPreparations to protect life and property should be completed by \nlate Friday.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of \nsouthwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain.\n\n4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central \ncoast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/2100Z 15.7N 103.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.1N 104.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 16.8N 104.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 17.7N 105.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 18.8N 104.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 60H  11/0600Z 19.9N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  11/1800Z 21.1N 104.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/1800Z 23.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}