{"msg": "141\nAXNT20 KNHC 081725\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 23.7N 90.2W at 1500 UTC, or 150\nnm N of Progreso Mexico, moving E-NE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt \nwith gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft (6 m) within 60 nm \nacross the NE semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection \nextends from 22N to 25N between 88.5W and 91.5W. Scattered to \nlocally numerous isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from\n23N to 29N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is \noccurring in outer rainbands in the SW Gulf. On the forecast \ntrack, Isaias is expected to continue to the north of the Yucatan \nPeninsula today, gradually turning northward tonight through Fri,\nthen make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the \nwarning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional \nstrengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should \nremain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast\nFriday night. Swell generated by the hurricane have begun to \naffect the western and northwestern portions of the Yucatan \nPeninsula today, and will spread outward in all directions tonight\nthrough Friday, reaching western Cuba and southeastern Mexico \ntonight, and southwestern Florida by late Fri morning. These \nswells are likely to cause large and powerful surf, and life- \nthreatening rip current conditions.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 23W, extending from \n05N-19N, moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection extends from 05N to 18N between the W \ncoast of Africa and 25W.\nA tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with an axis near \n75W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is interacting\nwith a broad upper level low over the W Caribbean. Scattered to\nlocally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N\nto 20.5N, and across portions of Hispaniola and SE Cuba, between \n71W and 78W. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh \nwinds from 16N to the coast of Hispaniola, with gusty winds and \nrough seas likely in the areas of strong convection.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea \nnear 10N14W and extends to 08N17W to 11N22W to 13N32W to 10.5N42W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 09.5N45W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 12N to 15N between 28W and 43W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more information\non Hurricane Isaias. \nAn old frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic across \ncentral Florida and into the eastern Gulf along about 27N. \nConvection remains active, as described above with Hurricane \nIsaias, both to the N and S of the front and extends inland across\nwestern Florida between Cape Coral and the Tampa Bay area. High \npressure across the southeastern U.S. extends across the northern \nGulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the front is \nforcing fresh to strong E to NE winds to the north of the front, \nand extends into the NW Gulf waters to the northwest of Isaias. \nSeas are 5 to 9 ft across this area. Elsewhere, fresh NW to W \nwinds wrap cyclonically across the SW Gulf and into the western \nYucatan, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. is near 23.3N 91.2W at 5 AM \nEDT, and is moving east- northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 979 mb. Otherwise, a weakening stationary front is \nover the NE Gulf, extending from the Tampa Bay region to 27N86W. \nThis frontal boundary is expected to lift northward and dissipate \ntonight.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to near 24.9N 89.0W \nthis evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to \nnear 27.1N 87.9W Fri morning, and begin to weaken as it moves to \nnear 29.6N 87.4W Fri evening. Isaias is forecast to move well \ninland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.3N 87.8W Sat \nmorning, then dissipate early on Mon. Swells will affect the \nwestern and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning \nlater today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Fri. In \nthe wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the \nnorth- central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker\nreturn flow over the western Gulf through midweek. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nModerate or weaker winds are across the Caribbean W of the\ntropical wave along 75W, along with slight seas. Over the central\nbasin, a tropical wave is interacting with an upper level low to\ngenerate scattered heavy showers and tstms over the central \nCaribbean, described above, with the strongest convection N of 16N\nand into Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters. Gusty\nwinds and rough seas are likely ongoing in the area of strongest \nconvection. Over the E basin, moderate to locally fresh E to E-SE\nwinds are present, with moderate seas to 6 ft, supported by high \npressure centered to the SE of Bermuda. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of America, and a\nfrontal boundary N of the Bahamas will maintain a weak pressure\ngradient over the NW and SW Caribbean, supporting moderate or\nweaker winds and slight seas through tonight. Moderate to fresh\ntrades in the central and eastern basin will prevail through Mon\nas high pressure SE of Bermuda slowly drifts westward through Fri\nevening, before dissipating over the weekend. As a result, winds \nare forecast to briefly reach moderate to fresh speeds over the NW\nCaribbean on Fri. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean near \n75W is accompanied by numerous thunderstorms between 70W and 75W. \nThe wave will move across the rest of the central Caribbean \nthrough this evening and across the western Caribbean tonight \nthrough the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast basin-\nwide by late Mon as a cold front moves across the offshore waters\nN of the Bahamas and helps to weaken the pressure gradient across\nthe region. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from 1009 mb low pressure just W of\nBermuda west-southwestward to central Florida near Cocoa Beach,\nthen into the eastern Gulf of America. Low level moisture\nconverging along both sides of the boundary are leading to \nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the offshore \nwaters N of 27.5N and W of 74W. Moderate easterly winds are N of\nthe front and W of 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail N of\n28N between 59W and 70W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Farther E near\nthe front, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is\noccurring N of 30N to the front, between 55W and 64W. At the \nsurface, a 1018 mb high is centered near 29.5N53W, and extends a \nbroad ridge southwest to 60W and then westward to the NW Bahamas. \nAcross the central Atlantic, a deep layered upper trough has \ninduced a surface trough below it, extending from 29N39W to \n21N49W. This deep layered feature is generating scattered showers \nand thunderstorms N of 20N between 34W and 48W. A broad surface \nridge associated with the Azores High dominate the subtropical \nAtlantic waters E of 38W. The gradient between the ridge and lower\npressure associated with both the aforementioned surface trough \nand a dissipating cold front over NW Africa, is supporting fresh \nNE to E winds and moderate seas to 6 ft N of 20N and E of 44W. \nModerate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to \nmoderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken \nthrough tonight. Its northern portion will transition to a cold \nfront that moves past Bermuda by this evening while its western \nportion will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. Easterly winds will \nreach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida tonight as Hurricane \nIsaias continue to track northward across the Gulf of America. These \nwinds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before \nweakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Otherwise, high \npressure to the SE of Bermuda will shift westward on Fri, thus \nresulting in an increased pressure gradient and ESE winds of \nmoderate to fresh speeds S of 24N through Sun night. Looking ahead, \na new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast \nearly on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through midweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217036018920685575", "issued": "2026-10-08T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217036018920685575"}