{"msg": "121\nAXPZ20 KNHC 081601\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.4N 103.3W at 08/1500\nUTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65\nkt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is observed from 14N to 18N between 99W and \n105W. A slow west to west-northwest motion is expected through \ntonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest or north \non Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, Simon is expected \nto approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico \nlate Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is \nexpected to become a hurricane later today and a very dangerous \ncategory 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico.\nSimon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches \nover portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum \ntotals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of \nMichoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall may \nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in \nareas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect \nportions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico \nduring the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.1N 124.2W at 08/1500\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 120 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward \nthe west-northwest. This general motion is expected to continue \nover the next day, before a sharp turn to the northeast, along \nwith an increase in forward speed, occurs on Saturday. On the \nforecast track the center of Rachel is expected to approach the \nnorthern portion of Baja California on late Saturday. Gradual \nweakening is expected over the next few days, but Rachel is still\nexpected to be at tropical storm strength when it approaches \nnorthern Baja California. Swells partly generated by Rachel will \nbuild along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja \nCalifornia through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause \nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. Interests in extreme \nnorthern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and \nsouthern California should monitor the progress of Rachel. \nTropical Storm Watches could be required for a portion of this \narea by tonight. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N97W, then resumes S\nof T.S. Rachel near 13N120W to beyond 11N140W. In addition to the\nconvection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection can be found from 00N to 10N E of\n110W, and from 00N to 11N W of 110W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico.\nAway from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates\nthe remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate\nor weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 15.5N 104.1W this evening, move to 16.1N 104.9W \nFri morning, 16.9N 105.1W Fri evening, 17.6N 105.1W Sat morning, \n18.7N 105.1W Sat evening, and inland to 19.7N 105.1W Sun morning.\nSimon will move inland near 22.2N 105.6W early Mon. Meanwhile, \nRachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri\nmorning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning. \nRachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California \nNorte on Sat as it accelerates to the NE. Finally, the system is \nforecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just \nsouth of the California-Mexico border and inland over early Mon.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found between\nEcuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, a weak pressure \ngradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America \nand Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce\nmoderate to locally rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos\nIslands through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure north \nof the Caribbean will support moderate or lighter winds and \nmoderate seas across much of the forecast waters through at the \nmiddle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is \nforecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week.\nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression \ncould form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 \nkt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation\nin the next 7 days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, high pressure\nlocated well N of area extends a ridge over the NW waters\nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Rough seas\ngenerated by Rachel currently dominate the area from 17N to 28N \nbetween 118W and 130W. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 22.4N 124.9W\nthis evening, 22.7N 125.1W Fri morning, 23.4N 123.9W Fri evening,\n25.1N 121.4W Sat morning, 28.4N 118.3W Sat evening, and inland \nto 32.8N 115.3W Sun morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical \ndepression while moving inland near 42.4N 110.2W early Mon. \nAdditionally, the large SW swell will continue to affect roughly \nthe waters S of the Equator and west of 105W. Meanwhile, fresh \nto strong northerly winds and rough seas behind a frontal system \nwill affect the northern waters starting Fri and continue into \nSun.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1217019623801978887", "issued": "2026-10-08T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1217019623801978887"}