{"id": "1217004758886678535", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-08T15:00:00Z", "msg": "171\nWTPZ43 KNHC 081446\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  46\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026\n\nRachel's satellite presentation continues to slowly degrade as dry \nair continues to affect the cyclone. The coldest cloud tops are \naround -50 C. The most recent TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity \nestimate is still a 4.0/65 kt, while the objective estimates from \nUW-CIMSS are in the range of 33-56 kt. Based on the available data, \nthe initial intensity has been held at 60 kt for this advisory. \n\nThe initial motion was estimated at 300/6 kt. The cyclone is still \nbeing steered by the high pressure anchored over the southwestern \nUnited States. In about a day or so, a mid- to upper-level trough \ncurrently sweeping across the Pacific is expected to turn Rachel to \nthe northeast and increase the forward speed of the storm as well. \nThe spread in the track guidance has decreased, so there is a bit \nmore confidence in the track forecast. The current NHC track is \nmostly the same as the track prior, only a few minor adjustments to \nthe east have been made based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. \n \nThe gradual weakening tread for Rachel is expected to continue as \nthe storm continues to move through an environment characterized by \ncooling sea-surface temperatures and dry mid-level air. Wind shear \nis expected to increase over Rachel as the previously mentioned \ntrough approaches the system, which will help to weaken the storm \nfurther. However, the sea-surface temperatures are warmer than \nnormal for the waters near California and Baja California and the \ninteraction of the trough could help foster the growth of convection \nas well.  There is still a high degree of uncertainty on if Rachel \nwill be a tropical or post-tropical system as it approaches northern \nBaja California and southern California. Regardless, the cyclone is \nexpected to produce heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds. \nThe current NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged from the \nprevious advisory.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern \nBaja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern \nCalifornia at tropical storm strength over the weekend, potentially \nbringing strong winds and coastal flooding to portions of those \nareas. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of \nthis area by tonight. Gusty winds are likely to spread over interior \nportions of the Southwest United States into early next week.\n\n2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the \nSouthwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula \nthrough this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of \nrainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding.\n\n3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of \nSouthern California and northern Baja California through the \nweekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/1500Z 22.1N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 22.4N 124.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 22.7N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 23.4N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 25.1N 121.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  11/0000Z 28.4N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 32.8N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/1200Z 42.4N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}