{"msg": "157\nAXNT20 KNHC 081043\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1040 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 23.3N 91.2W at 08/0900 UTC or\n150 nm NW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 8 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft (6 m). \nNumerous moderate to strong convection extends from 21N to 28N \nbetween 85W and 93W. Scattered moderate convection in spiral\nrainbands are also in the SW Gulf. On the forecast track, \nIsaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula \nlater today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast \nwithin the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional\nstrengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should\nremain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf \nCoast on Friday night. Swells will affect the western and \nnorthern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today \nand spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells\nare likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 22W, extending from \n05N-20N, moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection extends from 05N to 20N between the W coast of Africa\nand 24W.\nA tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with an axis near \n73W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated\nstrong convection is S of 20N, across Hispaniola, and between 70W\nand 76W. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh \nwinds over Hispaniola adjacent waters with gusty winds and rough\nseas likely in the areas of strong convection.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to\n13N32W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to 11N60W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is occurring from 10N to 15N between 27W and \n43W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more information\non Hurricane Isaias. \nHurricane Isaias is near 23.3N 91.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving \neast-northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with \ngusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb.\nOtherwise, a weakening stationary front is over the NE Gulf,\nextending from the Tampa Bay region to 27N86W. This frontal\nboundary forecast to dissipate later today, is generating\nscattered showers to the NE basin. \nFor the forecast, Isaias will move to 24.2N 90.0W this afternoon,\n25.9N 88.6W Fri morning, 28.4N 87.6W Fri afternoon, move inland \nand weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 87.6W Sat morning, move \ninland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.7N 88.5W Sat \nafternoon, and inland to 36.0N 88.7W Sun morning. Isaias will \ndissipate early Mon. Swells will affect the western and northern \nportions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread\nnorthward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nIn the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the \nnorth-central Gulf by Sun evening, providing moderate or weaker \nreturn flow through midweek. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nModerate or weaker winds are across the Caribbean W of 75W along\nwith slight seas due to a weak gradient of pressure associated\nwith Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf and a front across the offshore\nwaters N of the Bahamas. Over the central basin, a tropical wave\nis generating scattered heavy showers and tstms over the central\nCaribbean, being the strongest convection over Hispaniola and\nadjacent waters. Gusty winds and rough seas are likely ongoing in\nthe area of strongest convection. Over the E basin, moderate to\nlocally fresh SE winds are present along with moderate seas being\nsupported by high pressure centered to the SE of Bermuda. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of America, and a \nfrontal boundary N of the Bahamas will maintain a weak pressure \ngradient over the NW and SW Caribbean, supporting moderate or \nweaker winds and slight seas through tonight. Moderate to fresh \ntrades in the central and eastern basin will prevail through Mon \nas high pressure to the SE of Bermuda slowly drifts westward \nthrough Fri evening before dissipating over the weekend. As a \nresult, winds are forecast to briefly reach moderate to fresh \nspeeds over the NW Caribbean on Fri. Moderate or weaker winds are \nforecast basin-wide by late Mon as a cold front moves across the \noffshore waters N of the Bahamas acting to reduce the pressure \ngradient over the region. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from 31N70W to Stuart, Florida,\ngenerating scattered showers across the offshore waters N of 27N\nand W of 55W. To the SE of Bermuda, a 1017 mb high prevails near \n28N54W. Farther east, a surface trough extending from 29N39W to\n20N51W is generating scattered showers and tstms N of 20N between \n33W and 49W. Finally, surface ridging associated with the Azores\nHigh dominate the E subtropical Atlantic waters. The gradient\nbetween the ridge and lower pressure associated with both the\naforementioned surface trough and a cold front entering NW Africa,\nis supporting fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas N of 20N and E\nof 40W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight\nto moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken \ntoday and dissipate tonight while the portion of the front N of \n30N transitions to a cold front that moves past Bermuda by this \nevening. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida \ntonight as Hurricane Isaias continue to track northward across the\nGulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds \nearly on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. \nOtherwise, high pressure to the SE of Bermuda will shift westward \non Fri, thus resulting in an increased pressure gradient and ESE \nwinds of moderate to fresh speeds S of 24N through Sun night. \nLooking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to come off the NE \ncoast of Florida early on Mon and move across the offshores N of \n29N through midweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216957114852278279", "issued": "2026-10-08T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216957114852278279"}