{"msg": "410\nAXPZ20 KNHC 080941\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0905 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.4N 103.1W at 08/0900\nUTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55\nkt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is observed from 13N to 18N and between 100W \nand 107W. A W motion is expected to continue through today, \nfollowed by a turn toward the west-northwest to north-northwest \non Friday. Simon should turn toward the north Friday night and\napproach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Rapid \nstrengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a \nmajor hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. \nTropical Storm Rachel is centered near 21.8N 123.9W at 08/0900\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 20N to 24N and between 121W and 126W. \nThe WNW motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, \nbefore a sharp turn to the northeast, along with an increase in \nforward speed, is forecast to occur. Continued gradual weakening is \nexpected over the next few days. Swells partly generated by Rachel \nwill build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja \nCalifornia through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause \nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast\nof Panama near 08N83W to 12N98W and then from 11N115W to 08N127W\nto beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is observed from 06N to 13N and between 115W and \n127W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico.\nAway from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates\nthe remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will slowly be traversing\nand impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the \nnext five days. Simon will move to 15.4N 104.1W this afternoon, \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 15.9N 105.1W Fri morning, 16.6N \n105.5W Fri afternoon, 17.4N 105.6W Sat morning, 18.3N 105.4W Sat \nafternoon, and 19.3N 105.3W Sun morning near SW Mexico. Simon \nwill change little in intensity as it moves near SW Mexico early \nMon. Meanwhile, Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, \n22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N \n122.8W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of \nBaja California Norte on Sat as it accelerates to the NE. Finally, \nthe system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early \nSun just south of the California-Mexico border and inland over early \nMon.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found between\nEcuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, a weak pressure \ngradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America \nand Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce rough\nseas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight.\nElsewhere, a weak high pressure north of the Caribbean will support\nmoderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the \nforecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking ahead,\nan area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast \nof Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental\nconditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this\nsystem thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it \nmoves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The system \nhas a medium chance of formation in the next 7 days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters.\nOutside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, a weak high \npressure supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast \nwaters. Large long-period SW swell is present across the southern\nborder between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed \nswell.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 21.8N 123.9W at 2\nAM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 985 mb. Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this \nafternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, \n24.0N 122.8W Sat morning, 26.4N 119.9W Sat afternoon, and 30.2N \n116.7W Sun morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical depression \nwhile moving inland over 39.9N 112.2W early Mon. Additionally, \nthe large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the\nnext several days. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds \nand rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern \nwaters starting Fri and continue into Sun.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216944909396049927", "issued": "2026-10-08T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216944909396049927"}