{"id": "1216933085992353799", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-08T09:00:00Z", "msg": "601\nWTPZ43 KNHC 080841\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  45\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 AM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026\n\nDry air continues to eat away at Rachel's convection. Satellite \nimagery over the last couple of hours depicts noticeable degradation \nacross the western semicircle, with deep convection weakening \nthroughout the storm as seen through warming cloud-top temperatures. \nWhile TAFB's subjective Dvorak intensity estimate was unchanged at \n4.0/65 kt, objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have trended downward. \nAs a result of this, combined with the weakening trend seen through \nsatellite imagery, the initial intensity was set at 60 kt, and \nRachel has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm.\n\nThe initial motion was estimated at 290/7 kt. Rachel appears to have \ngained a slight amount of speed since last advisory, its motion \ndriven primarily by high pressure anchored over the southwestern US. \nHowever, a mid- to upper-level trough currently sweeping across the \nPacific is forecast to pick up Rachel and turn it to the northeast \nin approximately 24 hours. This will coincide with an increase in \nforward speed. While track guidance continues to exhibit a fair \namount of spread after this trough interaction, skilled guidance has \nbecome more aligned on a solution since the last advisory. The \nlatest NHC track forecast nudges Rachel's trajectory more towards \nHCCA and GDMI, which results in a slight shift toward the right as \nthe storm the storm approaches northern Baja California. \n\nAs Rachel continues to move about in an environment characterized by \ncooling SSTs and dry mid-level air, its convection is expected to \nfurther degrade, thus inducing further weakening. Once the \naforementioned trough shifts Rachel's path, vertical wind shear is \nalso expected to increase substantially, leading to even further \nweakening as the storm approaches northern Baja California and \nsouthern California. Simulated satellite imagery even suggests that \nRachel may lose its deep convection altogether by the time it hits \nland, however strong winds and heavy rain can still be expected \nwherever Rachel makes landfall, either as a tropical storm or a \npost-tropical cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast reflects a \nmore steady weakening trend compared to the previous advisory, with \nRachel forecast to become post-tropical between 72 and 96 hours, or \nshortly after making landfall. \n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern Baja \nCalifornia and Southern California at or near tropical storm \nstrength over the weekend, potentially bringing strong winds and \ncoastal flooding to portions of those areas. Gusty winds could \nspread over interior portions of the Southwest United States into \nearly next week.\n \n2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the \nSouthwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula \nthrough this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of \nrainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding.\n \n3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of\nSouthern California and northern Baja California through the\nweekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and\nrip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local\nweather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/0900Z 21.8N 123.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 22.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 22.9N 124.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 24.0N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  10/1800Z 26.4N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 30.2N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 39.9N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}