{"msg": "637\nAXNT20 KNHC 080550\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Isaias is centered near 23.1N 91.7W at 08/0600 UTC or \n160 nm NW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 8 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed \nis 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft (6 m), \nwith seas in excess of 13 ft (4 m) extending out 30 nm in the \nnorthern semicircle and 45 nm in the southern semicircle of \nIsaias. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 21N to\n27N between 85W and 94W. A continued east- northeastward motion \nis expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and\nnorth later today and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is \nexpected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today\nand make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the \nwarning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional \nstrengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should \nremain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast\non Friday night. Swells will affect the western and northern \nportions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread\nnorthward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are \nlikely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 21W, extending from \n05N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong\nconvection follows this wave, from 04N to 19N and E of 22W. \nScattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 12N between 22W\nand 28W.\nA tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 72W, moving\nwestward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen S\nof 21N between 66W and 74W. This wave is also forcing moderate to\nlocally fresh winds over the northeast Caribbean and southern \nPuerto Rico adjacent waters.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends to\n09N20W, then 11N25W, then 10N30W, then to a 1013 mb low near\n12N37W, and then ends near 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W \nto 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the\n1013 mb low. Scattered showers are also occurring along and near\nthese features to the W of the low.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Tropical Storm Isaias. \nBesides Hurricane Isaias, a 1007 mb low is centered over the \nnorth- central basin near 27N86W, and a stationary front extends \neastward through the central Florida Peninsula, and a pair of \ntroughs extend south and southwestward from the low. Fresh to \nstrong NE to E winds are noted north of these features, and 4 to 7\nft seas are occurring as observed by recent buoy data. Across the \nsoutheastern Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to near 23.4N 90.7W \nThu morning, 24.7N 89.1W Thu evening, 26.8N 87.9W Fri morning, \n29.6N 87.3W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 32.5N 87.5W Sat morning, and move inland and weaken to \na tropical depression near 35.1N 88.0W Sat evening. Isaias will \ndissipate late Sun. Swells from Isaias are expected to spread \nacross the most of the northern and central Gulf portions through \nFri night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will be over \nthe basin into early next week. Otherwise, a stationary front \nalong the NE Gulf will gradually weaken through Thu morning.\n\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in\nthe eastern Caribbean. \nModerate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring in the\ncentral and eastern Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in \nthis region. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight seas, as noted on recent buoy \nand altimeter satellite data. \nFor the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the \nwestern Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds \nacross most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, \nhigh pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which\nwill drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This \nwill increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh \nspeeds Fri. These trades will change little then be at mostly \nmoderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Mon, then may diminish \nsome late Mon. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold extends from near 31N73W to inland central Florida near \nStuart. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of this front, with\n6 to 8 ft seas in the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms\nare occurring near these features, west of 59W and north of 25N. \nFarther east in the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends \nfrom 29N37W to 21N49W, and scattered showers and storms to the \neast are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. Finally \nover the eastern Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting \nmoderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 35W, with\ngentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas elsewhere.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold extends from near 31N70W to \n30N73W and becomes stationary to inland Florida near Stuart. The \ncold front will weaken past Bermuda late Thu before dissipating \nThu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will \nfollow the front, remaining off NE Florida through this evening. \nModerate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere \nthrough Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of \nBermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to \nmoderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise,\nwinds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida by \nFri morning as Tropical Cyclone Isaias tracks northward across the\nGulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds \nearly on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. \nWinds E of northern Florida become W to NW at moderate speeds \nearly next week behind a weak cold front.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216899392715161607", "issued": "2026-10-08T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216899392715161607"}