{"msg": "471\nAXPZ20 KNHC 080342\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0305 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 21.4N 122.9W at 08/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with\ngusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is occurring from 18N to 23N and \nbetween 121W to 124W. The WNW is expected to continue over the \nnext day or so. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before \nmaking a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. \nGradual weakening is forecast over the next few days. Swells \npartly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern\nCalifornia and northern Baja California through the weekend. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.6N 102.5W at 08/0300\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 14 ft. Numerous moderate to\nscattered strong convection is observed from 14N to 19N and \nbetween 99W and 106W. The WNW motion is expected to continue \nthrough Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and \nnorth on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Simon is \nexpected to remain south of Mexico through Friday, but approach \nthe coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening\nis forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane \nby late Friday or early Saturday. \n \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast\nof Costa Rica near 11N86W to 13N97W and then from 11N114W to\n08N125W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 08N to 14N and between 101W and 111W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico.\nAway from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient\ndominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters supporting\nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near\n21.8N 123.7W Thu morning, move to 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, \n22.6N 124.9W Fri morning, 23.3N 123.5W Fri evening, 24.9N 120.9W \nSat morning, and 28.0N 118.2W Sat evening. Rachel should reach \nthe offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become\npost-tropical. Finally, the system is forecast to move across \nBaja California Norte early Sun just south of the California- \nMexico border and move inland to near 36.4N 113.0W late Sun. \nTropical Storm Simon will slowly be traversing and impacting the \noffshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. \nSimon will move to 15.8N 103.6W Thu morning, strengthen to a \nhurricane near 16.1N 104.6W Thu evening, 16.4N 105.3W Fri \nmorning, 16.9N 105.5W Fri evening, 17.8N 105.6W Sat morning, and \n18.9N 105.5W Sat evening. Simon will change little in intensity \nas it moves to the 21.6N 105.8W late Sun.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of\nCentral America and Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds\nand moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and\nmoderate seas are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos\nIslands.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will\nsupport moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much\nof the forecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking\nahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the \ncoast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter while it moves generally \nwest-northwestward at around 10 kt. The system has a low chance\nof formation in the next 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located over the NE waters.\nOutside of the influence of Hurricane Rachel, a weak high pressure\nsupports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large \nlong-period SW swell is present across the southern border \nbetween 95W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 21.4N 122.9W at 8 PM\nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 982 mb. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near \n21.8N 123.7W Thu morning, move to 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, 22.6N\n124.9W Fri morning, 23.3N 123.5W Fri evening, 24.9N 120.9W Sat \nmorning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja \nCalifornia Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Additionally, \nthe large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the\nnext several days. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds \nand rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern \nwaters starting Fri and continue into Sun.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216874185419849735", "issued": "2026-10-08T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216874185419849735"}