{"id": "1216865436505440263", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-08T03:00:00Z", "msg": "385\nWTPZ43 KNHC 080257\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  44\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM PDT Wed Oct 07 2026\n \nInfrared satellite imagery over the last 24 hours suggest that\nRachel's deep convection is weakening. In fact, IR imagery depicts\nconvection around the cyclone is a bit more narrow, with a dry \nslot on the northwestern quadrant, rather than the shield of deep \nconvection over the inner core seen the previous night. The \nsubjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB also appears to \nfollow this weakening trend, having estimated Rachel's intensity at \n4.0/65 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity was lowered slightly to \n65 kt.\n \nThe initial motion was estimated at 290/6 kt. Rachel continues to be \nsteered by high pressure anchored over the western US. However, \nglobal forecast models depict Rachel's trajectory turning to the \nnortheast later this week as it is picked up by a mid- to \nupper-level trough sweeping across the Pacific. As Rachel makes this \nturn, its forward speed will slow, before accelerating as it follows \nthe trough toward northern Baja California and the southwestern U.S. \nTrack guidance continues to exhibit a fair amount of spread in \ndepicting where Rachel will ultimately reach land, complicated by \nthe speed at which the storm makes its forecast northeastward turn. \nThe latest NHC track forecast has shifted slightly to the right, in \nan effort to better capture the blend between GDMI and HCCA \nguidance, which depicts a slower, sharper turn and thus a track \nslightly to the south of the previous advisory.\n \nRachel's convection is expected to erode further as it enters an \nenvironment of cooler sea-surface temperatures and dry mid-level air \nas diagnosed by SHIPS guidance. Once the aforementioned trough \ninteracts with the storm, vertical wind shear is also expected to \nincrease substantially as well. Thus, the latest NHC intensity \nforecast hastens Rachel's weakening trend slightly, but remains on \nthe upper end of the guidance envelope initially to account for \nRachel's recent resilience. Thereafter, vertical wind shear is \nexpected to strip the remaining convection within the storm, and \nRachel is forecast to become post-tropical as it moves inland over \nthe Baja California peninsula by 96 hours. It should be noted, \nhowever, that tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain could still \naccompany what remains of Rachel's circulation even if its \nconvection erodes by the time it impacts land.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern\nBaja California and Southern California at tropical storm strength\nover the weekend, potentially bringing strong winds and coastal\nflooding to portions of those areas. Gusty winds could spread over\ninterior portions of the Southwest United States into early next\nweek.\n \n2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the \nSouthwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula \nthrough this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of \nrainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding. \n \n3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of\nSouthern California and northern Baja California through the\nweekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and\nrip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local\nweather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  08/0300Z 21.4N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 22.6N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 23.3N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  10/1200Z 24.9N 120.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 28.0N 118.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 36.4N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}