{"msg": "459\nAXNT20 KNHC 072253\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.7N 92.9W at 07/2100\nUTC or 200 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt.\nEstimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained\nwind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 18 \nft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 19N \nto 26N between 89W and 94W. A continued east-northeastward motion\nis expected today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and \nnorth on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is \nexpected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday\nand make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday \nor early Saturday. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by \nThursday morning, with further strengthening expected through \nFriday morning. Swells are expected to affect the western and \nnorthern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday \nand spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 21W, extending from \n05N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection extends from 06N to 14N between 16W and 23W.\nA tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 71W, moving\nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 14N to 17N between 65W and 69W. This wave\nis also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds over the \nnortheast Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and extends to \n09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N56W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 24W and \n33W, and from 08N to 10N between 45W and 48W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Tropical Storm Isaias. \nBesides Tropical Storm Isaias, a 1008 mb low is centered over the\nnorth-central basin near 27N86W, and a stationary front extends \neastward through the central Florida Peninsula, and a trough \nextends southwestward from the low to 25N93W. Fresh to strong NE \nto E winds are noted north of these features, and 4 to 6 ft seas \nare occurring as observed by recent buoy data. Across the \nsoutheastern Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Isaias will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 23.1N 91.8W late tonight with maximum sustained \nwinds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and continue to strengthen as it moves to \nnear 24.1N 90.1W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt \ngusts 100 kt, then move to near 25.8N 88.7W late Thu night, to \nnear 28.1N 87.6W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 95 kt \ngusts 115 kt. Isaias is forecast to move inland and weaken to a \ntropical storm near 31.0N 87.3W Sat morning, and weaken further \nfar inland through Sun. Swells from Isaias are expected to spread \nacross the most of the northern and central Gulf portions through \nFri night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will be over \nthe basin into early next week. Otherwise, a stationary front \nalong the north- central and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through\nThu morning.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in\nthe eastern Caribbean. \nModerate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring in the\neastern Caribbean near a tropical wave axis near 71W. Seas of 3 \nto 5 ft are noted in this region. In addition, convection near the\ntropical wave is likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. \nElsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or \nweaker winds and slight seas, as noted on recent buoy and \naltimeter satellite data. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection\nis occurring in the south-central Caribbean near the eastern \nextension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. \nFor the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the \nwestern Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds \nacross most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, \nhigh pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which\nwill drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This \nwill increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh \nspeeds Fri. These trades will change little through then be at \nmostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Mon, then may \ndiminish some late Mon.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold extends from near 31N76W to 28N78W and becomes stationary \nto inland central Florida near Melbourne. Fresh to locally strong\nNE winds prevail north of this front, with 6 to 8 ft seas in the \nregion. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near \nthese features, west of 59W and north of 27N. Farther east, a \nsurface trough extends from 27N42W to 23N47W, and scattered \nshowers and storms to the east are likely producing gusty winds \nand rough seas. An additional surface trough, from 30N36W to \n31N38W, is leading to moderate or weaker winds. Finally over the \neastern Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting moderate \nto locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 40W. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken past \nBermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong \nnortheast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining \noff NE Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and \nslight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, \nhigh pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will \nincrease trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing \nSat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong \nspeeds again off NE Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Cyclone \nIsaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds \nwill veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening \nto moderate speeds by Sun morning. Winds E of northern Florida \nbecome W to NW at moderate speeds early next week behind a weak \ncold front.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216817521242800135", "issued": "2026-10-07T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216817521242800135"}