{"msg": "737\nAXPZ20 KNHC 072106\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2030 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 21.2N 122.3W at 07/2100 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with\ngusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 35 ft. Scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 20N-23N and between 120W-123W. A \ngenerally west to west-northwestward motion is expected during \nthe next day or two. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before \nmaking a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week.\nGradual weakening is forecast over the next few days. Swells \npartly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern\nCalifornia and northern Baja California through the weekend. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.5N 101.6W at 07/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft. Numerous moderate \nand scattered strong convection is from 09N-16N between 97W-109W.\nTh WNW motion is expected to continue through tomorrow, followed\nby a turn toward the northwest and north on Friday. On the \nforecast track, the center of Simon is expected to remain south \nof Mexico through Friday, but approach the coast of southwestern \nMexico on Saturday. Continued strengthening is forecast during \nthe next 48 hours, and Simon is expected to become a hurricane \nby late Thursday.  It could become a major hurricane by Saturday.\n \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough exits coastal Costa Rica near 09N84W to\nTropical Depression Twenty-E near 15N102W. The monsoon trough \nrestarts at 11N115W and extends to beyond 11N140W. Numerous \nmoderate and scattered strong convection is from 09N-16N between \n97W-109W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 05N-10N east of 85W and 04S-04N between 130W-140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Depression Twenty-E offshore of southern Mexico.\nAside from Tropical Depression Twenty-E, the offshore zones west\nof Baja California Sur are still being impacted by large W to SW\nswell produced by Hurricane Rachel. The remainder of forecast \nwaters has winds moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft over the \nPacific waters and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 21.7N 123.2W Thu\nmorning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.1N 124.3W Thu \nafternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 23.0N 124.4W Fri afternoon, \n24.1N 122.6W Sat morning, and 26.4N 120.0W Sat afternoon. Rachel \nshould reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on \nSat and become post-tropical. Finally, the system is forecast to\nmove across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the \nCalifornia-Mexico border and move inland to near 33.0N 115.5W Sun\nafternoon. Tropical Storm Simon Simon will slowly be traversing \nand impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the \nnext five days. Simon will move to 15.9N 102.7W Thu morning, \n16.3N 104.0W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.6N \n104.8W Fri morning, 17.0N 105.1W Fri afternoon, 17.8N 105.2W Sat \nmorning, and 18.9N 105.3W Sat afternoon as it approaches Cabo \nCorrientes. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves to \nthe 21.2N 105.6W Sun afternoon as it enters the approach to the \nGulf of California. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nWinds across forecast waters are gentle with seas 4-6 ft.\nFor the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over \nthe Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. \nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south \nof the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter, while it moves generally \nwest-northwestward at around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation \nchance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located over the NE waters.\nAway from Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure gradient supports \nmoderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long- \nperiod SW swell is moving across the southern border between \n95W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 21.7N 123.2W Thu\nmorning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.1N 124.3W Thu \nafternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 23.0N 124.4W Fri afternoon, \n24.1N 122.6W Sat morning, and 26.4N 120.0W Sat afternoon. Rachel \nshould reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on\nSat and become post-tropical. Additionally, the large SW swell \nwill continue near our southern border for the next several days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216796508099772423", "issued": "2026-10-07T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216796508099772423"}