{"id": "1216792976399695879", "title": "Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory", "adv_date": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "msg": "185\nWTNT34 KNHC 072049\nTCPAT4\n \nBULLETIN\nTropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026\n400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026\n \n...ISAIAS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING, FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE BY \nTHURSDAY MORNING...\n \n \nSUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION\n----------------------------------------------\nLOCATION...22.7N 92.9W\nABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO\nABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H\nPRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES\n \n \nWATCHES AND WARNINGS\n--------------------\nCHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:\n \nNone\n \nSUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:\n \nA Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...\n* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown\n \nA Hurricane Watch is in effect for...\n* Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass\n \nA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...\n* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis\n* East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River\n \nA Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-\nthreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the\ncoastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.\nFor a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather\nService Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at\nhurricanes.gov.\n \nA Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible\nwithin the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours\nbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force\nwinds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or\ndangerous.\n \nA Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are\npossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.\n \nInterests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere\naround the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the\nprogress of this system.\n \nAdditional watches and warnings could be required for a portion of\nthe U.S. northern Gulf Coast tonight.\n \nFor storm information specific to your area, including possible\ninland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your\nlocal National Weather Service forecast office.\n \n \nDISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK\n----------------------\nAt 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was \nlocated near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 92.9 West. Isaias is \nmoving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued \neast-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn \ntoward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the \nforecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the \nYucatan Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall along the U.S. \nnorthern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.\n \nMaximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher \ngusts. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, \nwith further strengthening expected through Friday morning.  \n \nTropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)\nfrom the center.\n \nThe estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches) \nbased on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.\n \n \nHAZARDS AFFECTING LAND\n----------------------\nKey messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone\nDiscussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.\n \nSTORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the\ntide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by\nrising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could\nreach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated\nareas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...\n \nOcean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft\nMobile Bay...5-7 ft\nMouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft\nIndian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft\nSteinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft\nLake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft\n \nThe deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to\nthe east of the landfall location, where the surge will be\naccompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding\ndepends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,\nand can vary greatly over short distances.  For information\nspecific to your area, please see products issued by your local\nNational Weather Service forecast office.\n \nFor a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, \nplease see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, \navailable at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.\n \nWIND: Hurricane conditions could begin in the Hurricane Watch area\nlate Friday, and tropical storm conditions could begin in the\nwatch areas by midday Friday.\n \nGusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula\non Thursday.\n \nRAINFALL:  Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 \ninches through Thursday across coastal portions of the eastern Bay \nof Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of \nCampeche and western Yucatan.\n\nFrom Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce \nrainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 \ninches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far \nsoutheastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of \n1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible \nacross much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley \nand the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated \nriver flooding, will be possible. \n\nFor a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with \nTropical Storm Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm \nTotal Rainfall Graphic available at\nhurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk \ngraphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero\n\nTORNADO:  Tornado potential will increase as rain bands \naccompanying Isaias approach the northeastern Gulf Coast Friday \nevening and overnight.  This potential will spread inland on \nSaturday as Isaias continues northward.\n \nSURF: Swells are expected to affect the western and northern \nportions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread \nnorthward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\n \nA depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found\nat: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents\n \n \nNEXT ADVISORY\n-------------\nNext intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.\nNext complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.\n \n"}