{"id": "1216792098055913479", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "msg": "073\nWTPZ43 KNHC 072044\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  43\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM PDT Wed Oct 07 2026\n \nThe most recent satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection \nin the inner core has not recovered, since the prior advisory. \nHowever, Rachel still has some convection on the eastern side. The \nnorthwest side of the hurricane's eyewall lacks convection due to \nthe persistent wind shear and dry air. A recent ASCAT pass was used \nto re-evaluate the size of the wind field, but due to \nundersampling, it was not used for the intensity. Using a \ncombination of the objective and subjective intensity estimates, the \ninitial intensity remains at 70 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion for the cyclone is west-northwestward, or 290/6 \nkt. Currently, Rachel is being steered by high pressure located over \nthe western United States. However, near the end of the week, a \nlarge mid- to upper-level trough is expected to approach from the \nnorthwest. Rachel is expected to slow down and then turn toward the \nnortheast around that time. Once the turn is complete, the cyclone \nshould accelerate to Baja California and southern California. There \nis still some uncertainty with the track after Rachel makes the turn \ntoward the northeast, and that uncertainty grows larger near the end \nof the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similar to \nthe previous one with some adjustments made based on the HCCA and \nGDMI forecast aids. \n \nThe cyclone should gradually weaken as it moves into an unfavorable \nenvironment of cooler sea-surface temperatures and limited moisture. \nHowever, taking into account how resilient Rachel has been to the \nimpacts of the environment so far, the intensity is on the upper end \nof the guidance envelope. There is still a higher-than-normal amount \nof uncertainty in the intensity for the later portion of the \nforecast. The trough is expected to induce plenty of wind shear, and \nthe simulated satellite guidance shows that the cyclone loses \norganized deep convection shortly before landfall. While the 96 h \npoint shows Rachel as a post-tropical cyclone, it is possible that \nit will still have tropical-storm-force winds. Overall, the current \nNHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one with some \nslight adjustments being made, based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast \naids.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern \nBaja California and Southern California at tropical storm strength \nover the weekend, potentially bringing strong winds and coastal \nflooding to portions of those areas. Gusty winds could spread over \ninterior portions of the Southwest United States into early next \nweek.\n\n2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the \nSouthwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula \nthrough this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of \nrainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding.\n\n3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of \nSouthern California and northern Baja California through the \nweekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/2100Z 21.2N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 21.7N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 22.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  10/0600Z 24.1N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 26.4N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 33.0N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  12/1800Z 40.7N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n \n"}