{"id": "1216791107763994631", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z", "msg": "862\nWTPZ45 KNHC 072039\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n300 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026\n\nThe system continues to gradually become better organized on \nsatellite imagery with convective banding features becoming more \nprominent.  The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB \nhad a T-number of 2.5, corresponding to an intensity of 35 kt.  On \nthis basis, the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Simon \nfor this advisory.  The storm has developed upper-level anticyclonic \noutflow over all quadrants of the circulation.\n\nASCAT-B scatterometer data suggested that the center of the cyclone \nis a little north of the previous track, but the overall motion \nstill appears to be toward the west-northwest, or about 300/7 kt.  \nSimon is likely to continue this general west-northwestward motion \nfor the next day or so, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge.  By \nFriday, the system should turn northwestward and then northward \nahead of a 500 mb trough approaching Baja California. In 3-5 days, \nthe cyclone should move generally northward between a mid-level \nanticyclone and the trough near Baja California.  The official \nforecast track remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, \nand is close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \nFor the next few days, Simon is expected to remain within an \nenvironment of low vertical wind shear and moist low- to mid-level \nair, while moving over waters of high oceanic heat content.  These \nfactors should result in a significant increase in intensity this \nweek, and the system is likely to strengthen into a hurricane, \nand then into a major hurricane later this week.  The NHC intensity \nforecast is a little above the intensity model consensus, IVCN.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Simon is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday \nnight and approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major \nhurricane on Saturday. \n\n2. There is a risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along \nportions of the west-central coast of Mexico over the weekend and \ninto early next week, and watches could be required by tonight.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of \nsouthwestern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. This \nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain.\n\n4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central \ncoast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are likely to \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/2100Z 15.5N 101.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 15.9N 102.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 16.3N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 16.6N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 17.0N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  10/0600Z 17.8N 105.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 18.9N 105.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 21.2N 105.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 23.6N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\n \n"}