{"msg": "627\nAXNT20 KNHC 071633\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.4N 93.6W at 07/1500 UTC\nor 230 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed \nis 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is occurring from 19N to 26N between\n89W and 94W. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to\nthe north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the \nU.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is \nforecast over the next day or two, and Isaias is expected to \nbecome a hurricane by Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the \nwestern and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning \non Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this \nweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 20W, extending from \n05N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection extends from 06N to 14N between 16W and 23W.\nA tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 68.5W, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 65W and 69W. \nThis wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds over the\nnortheast Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to\n07N20W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N56W. \nScattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 16N \nbetween 24W and 33W, and from 08N to 10N between 45W and 48W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Tropical Storm Isaias. \nTropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.4N 93.6W at 07/1500 UTC\nor 230 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed \nis 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Elsewhere,\na 1008 mb low is centered over the north-central basin near \n27.5N86.5W, and a stationary front extends eastward through the \ncentral Florida Peninsula, and a trough extends southwestward from\nthe low to 25N93W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted north \nof these features on recent scatterometer data, and 4 to 6 ft seas\nare occurring as observed by recent buoy data. Across the \nsoutheastern Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, Isaias will move to near 22.7N 92.4W this \nevening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, strengthen\nto a hurricane near 23.4N 90.8W Thu morning with maximum \nsustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and continue to strengthen as \nit nears 24.6N 89.2W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 80 \nkt gusts 100 kt, then move to near 26.6N 88.1W Fri morning with \nmaximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, move to near 29.2N \n87.5W Fri evening, then inland and weaken to a tropical storm near\n32.2N 87.6W Sat morning. Isaias will weaken to a tropical \ndepression while moving farther inland to near 38.0N 87.5W early \non Sun. Swells from Isaias are expected to spread across most of \nthe northern and central Gulf portions through Fri night. In the \nwake of Isaias, weak high pressure will be over the basin. \nOtherwise, a stationary front along the north-central and NE Gulf \nwill gradually weaken through this evening. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in\nthe eastern Caribbean. \nModerate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring in the\neastern Caribbean near a tropical wave axis near 68.5W. Seas of 3\nto 5 ft are noted in this region. In addition, convection near the\ntropical wave is likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. \nElsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or \nweaker winds and slight seas, as noted on recent buoy and \naltimeter satellite data. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection\nis occurring in the south-central Caribbean near the eastern\nextension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. \nFor the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the \nwestern Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds \nacross most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, \nhigh pressure is forecast to redevelop to the southeast of \nBermuda, which will drift westward through Fri evening before \ndissipating. This will increase the trades over the central \nCaribbean to fresh speeds Fri. These trades will then be at mostly\nmoderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from 31N74.5W southwestward to the \ncentral Florida coast, and a pre-frontal trough is noted to the \nsoutheast. Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail north of this \nfront, with 6 to 8 ft seas in the region. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are occurring near these features, west of 59W and \nnorth of 27N. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 27N44W \nto 22N48W, and scattered showers and storms to the east are likely\nproducing gusty winds and rough seas. An additional surface \ntrough, from 29N38W to 31N40W, is leading to moderate or weaker \nwinds. Finally over the eastern Atlantic, the Azores high \ndominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and \nmoderate seas E of 40W. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will \ntransition to a slow moving cold front today, then weaken past \nBermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong NE \nwinds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off \nnortheast Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds \nand slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri \nevening, high pressure developing southeast of Bermuda and \nshifting westward will increase trades south of 22N to moderate to\nfresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will\nreach fresh to strong speeds again off northeast Florida by Fri \nmorning as Tropical Cyclone Isaias tracks northward across the \nGulf of America. These winds will veer to the southeast at fresh \nspeeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun \nmorning.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216742746067927047", "issued": "2026-10-07T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216742746067927047"}