{"id": "1216722972560097287", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-07T15:00:00Z", "msg": "003\nWTPZ43 KNHC 071452\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM PDT Wed Oct 07 2026\n \nRecent satellite imagery shows that Rachel's deep convection has\nwaned over the last couple of hours, however this could be due to\nthe convective daily minimum. If this is the case, then there is a \ngood chance for deep convection to return later. The northern side \nof the cyclone still shows the impact of easterly shear and dry air\nintrusions.  The eye of the hurricane is still well defined based\non the proxy-visible satellite imagery. Looking at a combination of\nthe objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial\nintensity for this advisory is being held at 70 kt.\n \nThe initial motion for the cyclone is west-northwestward, or 285/6\nkt. As of now, Rachel is being steered by high pressure located\nover the western United States. However, toward the end of the\nweek, a large mid- to upper-level trough is expected to approach\nfrom the northwest. This will cause Rachel to slow down and\nthen turn and accelerate toward Baja California and southern \nCalifornia, and the updated NHC forecast track shows Rachel as \na post-tropical cyclone at 96 h very near the coast. The current NHC \nforecast provides a 120-h track point for forecast continuity, \nhowever it is likely that the cyclone could dissipate sooner once it \nmoves over land. The rest of the forecast is similar to the previous \ntrack with minor adjustments made based on the latest HCCA and GDMI\nforecast aids, except for the track point at 120 h.\n \nThe hurricane is expected to gradually weaken as it moves into an\nunfavorable environment of cooler sea-surface temperatures and\nlimited moisture. Given how resilient Rachel has been to the\nenvironment, the current intensity trend is on the upper end of the\nguidance envelope. There is still a higher-than-normal amount of\nuncertainty to the intensity for the latter portion of the forecast.\nThe trough should induce plenty of wind shear, and the simulated\nsatellite guidance does show that the cyclone loses convection for a\nbrief time before it comes back again. The current NHC forecast does\nshow a post-tropical cyclone at 96 h, however, it is possible that\nit could still have tropical-storm-force winds at that point. In\ngeneral, the current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the\nprevious one with a few changes past 60 h, based on the HCCA and\nGDMI forecast aids.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/1500Z 20.9N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 21.3N 122.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 21.9N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 22.7N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  10/0000Z 23.5N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 25.2N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 31.0N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  12/1200Z 37.9N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n \n"}