{"msg": "073\nAXNT20 KNHC 071108\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1050 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Nine has intensified into Tropical Storm \nIsaias, which is centered near 22.0N 94.1W at 07/0900 UTC or 250 \nnm W of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt\nwith gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 10 to 11 ft. Numerous strong \nconvection extends from 20N to 26N between 90W and 96W. On the \nforecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the \nYucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf \nCoast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next \nday or two, and Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by \nThursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern \nportions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread\nnorthward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nIsaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 19W, extending from \n05N-20N. Scattered moderate convection extends from 07N to 16N\nbetween 17W and 23W.\nA tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 67W, moving\nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 14N to 17N between 63W and 69W. This \nwave is also forcing fresh to locally strong winds over the NE\nCaribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to\n14N26W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N50W to 11N58W.\nScattered moderate convection is from 09N to 17N between 23W and\n37W, and from 07N to 10N between 36W and 50W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Tropical Storm Isaias. \nTropical Storm Isaias is near 22.0N 94.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is \nmoving east-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt \nwith gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. \nAside from the cyclone, a stationary front extends from N of Tampa\nBay to a 1008 mb low near 27N86W where it starts to dissipate. The\nfront is generating scattered to isolated showers across the\nnorthern Gulf. Northeast fresh to strong winds are behind the\nfront over the NE Gulf while moderate to locally fresh NE winds\nare across the NW offshores. Seas are slight to moderate with this\nfrontal boundary.  \nFor the forecast, Isaias will move to 22.2N 92.9W this afternoon,\nstrengthen to a hurricane near 22.7N 91.4W Thu morning, 23.9N \n89.7W Thu afternoon, 25.5N 88.5W Fri morning, 27.7N 87.7W Fri \nafternoon, and inland to 30.8N 87.7W Sat morning. Isaias will \nweaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 38.2N \n87.5W early Sun. Otherwise, a stationary front along the north- \ncentral and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through this evening.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in\nthe eastern Caribbean. \nThe presence of a frontal boundary N of the Bahamas and Tropical \nStorm Isaias in the Gulf of America maintain a weak pressure \ngradient over the western and central Caribbean along with slight\nto moderate seas. Over the E basin, the passage of a tropical\nwave, currently moving across the Mona Passage just to the W of\nPuerto Rico, is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate\nseas. Gusty winds and rough seas are possible in the vicinity of\nthe wave due to the strong convection. \nFor the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the \nwestern Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds \nacross most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, \nhigh pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which\nwill drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This \nwill increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh \nspeeds Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh \nspeeds Fri night through Sun night.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from 31N68W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W\nto Cape Canaveral. Scattered heavy showers are occuring across the\noffshores N of 27N from the coast of Florida to nearly 60W. Ahead\nof the front, a 1017 mb high prevails to the SE of Bermuda, which\nis supporting moderate or weaker winds over the subtropical waters \nW of 40W. However, winds N of the frontal boundary are fresh to\nstrong and seas are moderate to rough. A pair of troughs are in\nthe central subtropical Atlantic waters generating scattered\nmoderate convection and tstms. Finally over the E Atlantic, the\nAzores high dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to\nE winds and moderate seas E of 40W. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will transition\nto a slow moving cold front today, then weaken past Bermuda late \nThu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds \nand rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida \nthrough this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas \nwill persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure \ndeveloping SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase \ntrades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and \nSat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds \nagain off NE Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Storm Isaias \ntracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer\nto the SE early on Sat before weakening by Sun morning. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216678748390883335", "issued": "2026-10-07T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216678748390883335"}