{"msg": "725\nAXPZ20 KNHC 071011\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0935 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.6N 121.2W at 07/0900 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to \n85 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is occurring from 18N to 23N and between 119W \nand 124W. A generally west to west-northwestward motion is \nexpected during the next couple of days. Rachel is then forecast \nto slow down before making a sharp turn to the northeast by the \nend of the week. Gradual to steady weakening is forecast over the\nnext few days.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nStorm Warning (Invest 92E): A broad area of low pressure located\noffshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers \nand thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to \nform within the next day or so while the system moves slowly \nwest-northwestward to northwestward. A Storm Warning has been \nissued for the increasing winds and building seas associated with\nthis low pressure. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is \nforecast across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over\nthe next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern \nMexico should monitor the progress of this system. For additional\ninformation, including Storm Warnings, see High Seas forecasts \nissued by the National Weather Service. The disturbance has a \nhigh chance of formation in the next 48 hours. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from near 11N86W to a 1006 mb low \n(EP92) near 14N100W. The monsoon trough restarts near 10N115W to\n11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nobserved north of 03N and between 90W and 109W. Similar\nconvection is evident south of 10N and west of 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located west-southwest of Baja California, \nMexico, and Invest 92E offshore of southern Mexico. \nHurricane Rachel continues to move away from the offshore waters\nof Baja California, however, moderate to fresh southerly winds\nand rough seas persist west of 115W and south of 27N. Meanwhile,\na developing low pressure, monitored as Invest 92E, is producing\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the offshore\nwaters of southern and SW Mexico. This system is also generating\nfresh to strong winds and moderate seas, mainly between 96W and \n103W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate\nseas are prevalent.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will continue to move away \nfrom the offshore waters of Baja California over the next few \ndays and weaken. Later, a weakening Rachel may reach the offshore\nzones of Baja California Sat evening into SUn as it turns back \ntoward the northeast. This will bring an increase in winds and \nbuilding seas to the area. A broad area of low pressure located \noffshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and\nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to \nform within the next day or so while the system moves slowly \nwest-northwestward to northwestward. A Storm Warning has been \nissued for the increasing winds and building seas associated with\nthis low pressure. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is \nforecast across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over\nthe next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern \nMexico should monitor the progress of this system. The \ndisturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect\nthe offshore waters of Central America, mainly east of Panama. At\nthe surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or \nlighter winds across forecast waters with seas 4-6 ft. \nFor the forecast, light to gentle winds and moderate seas will\ncontinue across the offshore waters of Central America and\nColombia over the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh \nsoutherly winds and moderate seas will prevail between Ecuador \nand the Galapagos Islands into early next week. Looking ahead, an\narea of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of \nGuatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter \nwhile it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 kt. \nTropical cyclone formation chance is near zero through 48 hours \nand is low through 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located over the NE waters and Invest 92E\ncentered south of Mexico.\nAway from Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure gradient supports \nmainly moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large \nlong-period SW swell is moving across the southern border \nbetween 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 21.1N 122.1W this\nafternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N 123.3W Thu \nmorning, 22.2N 124.6W Thu afternoon, 22.5N 125.2W Fri morning, \n22.9N 124.8W Fri afternoon, and 24.1N 123.0W Sat morning. Rachel \nwill become post-tropical as it moves to the 29.2N 117.5W early \nSun. A weakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of \nBaja California Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the \nnortheast. A broad area of low pressure located offshore \nof southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to \nform within the next day or so while the system moves slowly \nwest-northwestward to northwestward. A Storm Warning has been \nissued for the increasing winds and building seas associated with\nthis low pressure likely affecting the eastern waters late this\nweek into the weekend. The disturbance has a high chance of \nformation in the next 48 hours.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216667540228866055", "issued": "2026-10-07T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216667540228866055"}