{"msg": "925\nAXNT20 KNHC 070540\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Nine is centered near 22.1N 95.0W at 07/0300\nUTC or 300 nm W of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and \nisolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-25N between \n91W-97W. An east-northwestward motion is expected on Wednesday, \nfollowed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and \nFriday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass \nto the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the\nU.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Steady strengthening is \nforecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical \nstorm early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Swells are \nexpected to affect the western and northern portions of the \nYucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward \ntoward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave in the E Atlantic is near 19W, extending from\n05N-20N. No significant deep convection is occurring in \nassociation with the tropical wave.\nA strong tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near \n66W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is noted from 13N-18N between 61W-66W.\nThis wave is also forcing fresh to locally strong E winds across\nthe eastern Caribbean.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coastal Senegal near\n14N17W and extends to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to \n10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 250 nm\nof these features.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Tropical Depression Nine. \nAside from Tropical Depression Nine, a stationary front is \ndrapped across the northern Gulf from coastal Florida near Tampa\nBay to 27N95W to 23N97W. Winds behind the front are moderate to \nfresh northeasterlies with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate and \nisolated strong convection is occurring N of 24N and E of 90W, as\nwell as along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a \ntropical storm near 22.2N 94.2W Wed morning, move to 22.5N 92.7W \nWed evening, 23.2N 91.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane \nnear 24.3N 89.7W Thu evening, 26.1N 88.7W Fri morning, and 28.8N \n88.3W Fri evening. Nine will weaken to a tropical depression while\nmoving inland near 34.1N 88.8W late Sat. Otherwise, a frontal \nboundary along the northern Gulf will gradually weaken Wed and Wed\nnight. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in\nthe eastern Caribbean. \nA weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and\nan 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing moderate to locally fresh trades\nwith seas of 3-6 ft over the Caribbean this afternoon. Scattered \nmoderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean south of 13N \nand west of 73W. \nFor the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the \nwestern Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds \nacross most of the basin through early Thu. High pressure is \nforecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will \ndrift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will \nincrease the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri.\nThese trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri \nnight through Sun night. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA frontal boundary extends from 31N68W to the east coast of FL\nnear Cape Canaveral. A 1010 mb low near 30N78W is along the front,\nwith a surface trough extending southward to near Jupiter, FL.\nScattered moderate convection is along and roughly 100 nm S and E\nof these features. Farther east in the central Atlantic, a pair of\nsurface troughs stemming from a 1015 mb low near 32N40W are\nsupporting scattered moderate convection N of 24N between 32W and\n47W. Outside of convection, broad ridging across the Atlantic\nsupports gentle to moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas\nacross much of the basin. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from \n30N70W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W to Melbourne will begin to \nslowly move eastward across the area tonight as a cold front, then\nstall from Bermuda to NE Florida into Wed. Fresh to strong \nnortheast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining \noff NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and \nslight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, \nhigh pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will \nincrease trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing \nSat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong \nspeeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as Tropical Depression \nNine tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will\nveer to the SE Sat night through Sun night while weakening. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216614336429293575", "issued": "2026-10-07T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216614336429293575"}