{"msg": "926\nAXPZ20 KNHC 070327\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0305 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.4N 120.4W at 07/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to \n85 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered\nstrong convection is occurring from 17N to 22N and between 118W and \n123W. A generally west-northwestward motion is expected during the \nnext couple of days. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before \nmaking a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. Gradual \nto steady weakening is forecast over the next few days.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGale Warning (Invest 92E): A broad area of low pressure located\noffshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers \nand thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nwithin the next day or so while the system moves slowly west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward. A Gale Warning has been issued\nfor the increasing winds and building seas associated with this\nlow pressure late this week in the offshore waters of southern\nand SW Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is \nexpected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over\nthe next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern \nMexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance\nhas a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave has an axis near 90W, extending southward from \nthe Yucatan peninsula to 06N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. \nIsolated moderate conveciton is occurring near the trough axis.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from near 12N86W to a 1006 mb low\n(EP92) near 13N99W. The monsoon trough restarts near 13N115W to \n11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nobserved from 05N-18N between 95W-107W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 00N-04N between 103W-110W. Isolated \nmoderate conveciton is occurring from 05N-12N between 77W-88W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located west-southwest of Baja California, \nMexico, and Invest 92E offshore of southern Mexico. \nThe eastern periphery of Hurricane Rachel continues to impact the\nfar offshore waters of Baja California Sur supporting moderate to\nfresh southerly winds and rough seas, mainly west of 114W.\nFarther south, a developing low pressure, monitored as Invest \n92E, is producing some showers and thunderstorms across the\noffshore waters of southern Mexico. This system is also\ngenerating fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas,\nmainly between 94W and 102W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds\nand slight to moderate seas are prevalent.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.8N 121.4W Wed morning,\nweaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 122.6W Wed evening, 21.9N \n123.8W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.9W Thu evening, 22.5N 125.2W Fri \nmorning, and 23.1N 124.4W Fri evening. Rachel will become post-\ntropical as it moves to the 25.6N 119.9W late Sat. A weakening \nRachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja California \nNorte Sat evening as it turns back toward the northeast. A broad\narea of low pressure (Invest 92E) located offshore of southern \nMexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,\nand a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day \nor so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is \nexpected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over\nthe next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern \nMexico should monitor the progress of this system. The \ndisturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds \nacross forecast waters with seas 4-6 ft. \nFor the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over \nthe Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. \nHowever, looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to \nform south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter, while it moves generally \nwest-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation \nchance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located west-southwest offshore of Baja \nCalifornia, Mexico.\nOutside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure\ngradient is forcing only moderate and weaker winds across\nforecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is moving across the\nsouthern border between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in \nmixed swell.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.8N 121.4W Wed morning,\nweaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 122.6W Wed evening, 21.9N \n123.8W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.9W Thu evening, 22.5N 125.2W Fri \nmorning, and 23.1N 124.4W Fri evening. Rachel will become post-tropical\nas it moves to the 25.6N 119.9W late Sat. A weakening Rachel \nshould reach the offshore zones west of Baja California Norte Sat\nevening as it turns back toward the northeast. A broad area of \nlow pressure (Invest 92E) located offshore of southern Mexico is \nproducing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental \nconditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so \nwhile the system moves slowly west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is \nexpected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over\nthe next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern \nMexico should monitor the progress of this system. The \ndisturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216588178721996807", "issued": "2026-10-07T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216588178721996807"}