{"id": "1216577947589869575", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-07T03:00:00Z", "msg": "862\nWTPZ43 KNHC 070235\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026\n\nConvective coverage has expanded somewhat across Rachel's northern \nsemicircle. However, the storm's deepest convection remains \nconcentrated across its southern half, indicative of northeasterly \nshear entraining dry air into the northern portion of the cyclone. \nThe subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimate from TAFB was \n4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 70 to \n75 kt. Given these intensity estimates and very little change in the \noverall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 70 \nkt.\n \nThe initial motion was estimated at 285/5 kt. Rachel continues to\nbe steered by high pressure anchored over the western United States.\nHowever, by the end of the week, a large mid- to upper-level trough\nis forecast to approach from the northwest, causing Rachel to slow\ndown before turning sharply northeastward. The system should then\ngain forward speed as it moves toward Baja California and southern\nCalifornia. Little change was made to the latest NHC track forecast,\nother than to adjust it slightly toward the HCCA guidance.\n\nThe environment ahead of Rachel is expected to remain hostile, \ndefined by dry mid-level air and cooling SSTs. Once Rachel makes \nits forecasted turn to the northeast, vertical wind shear is \nexpected to increase as well, driven heavily by the aforementioned \ntrough. As a result, steady weakening is expected to continue, and \nRachel is forecast to become post-tropical by Saturday. The latest \nNHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous \nadvisory.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/0300Z 20.4N 120.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 20.8N 121.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 21.4N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 21.9N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 22.3N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  09/1200Z 22.5N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 23.1N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 25.6N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  12/0000Z 29.6N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}