{"msg": "792\nAXNT20 KNHC 062247\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Nine is centered near 22.1N 95.6W at 06/2100\nUTC or 330 NM W of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed \nis 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt and peak seas of 11 ft. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-27N \nbetween 92W-98W. An east to east- northeast motion is expected \nduring the next couple of days. By Friday, a turn to the northeast\nis anticipated. On the forecast track, the depression is expected\nto pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and \napproach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Steady \nstrengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to \nbecome a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on \nThursday. Swells generated by the depression are expected to \naffect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula \nbeginning on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. Please read the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov\n  for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA strong tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near \n65W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is noted from 13N-17N between 60W-66W. \nA tropical wave in the E Atlantic is near 19W, extending from 06N-16N.\nNo significant deep convection is occurring in association with\nthe tropical wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coastal Senegal near\n13N17W and extends to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to \n10N60W. Isolated moderate convection is evident from 09N-14N\nbetween 24W-41W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Tropical Depression Nine. \nAside from Tropical Depression Nine, a stationary front is \ndrapped across the northern Gulf from coastal Florida peninsula at\n27N83W to 28N97W to 24N98W. Winds behind the front are moderate \nto fresh northeasterlies with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate and\nisolated strong convection is occurring from 25N-29N between\n81W-86W.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a \ntropical storm near 22.1N 95.0W late tonight with maximum \nsustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, will track to near 22.6N 93.4W \nWed afternoon, to near 23.1N 91.8W late Wed night with maximum \nsustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near \n24.2N 90.1W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts\n85 kt, then track to near 25.9N 88.8W late Thu night and to near \n28.5N 88.3W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts\n105 kt. Nine is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression while\nmoving well inland near 34.0N 88.7W Sat afternoon. Long-period \nswells generated by the tropical cyclone will spread across most \nof the basin through early Sun. Atlantic high pressure will build \nsouthwestward toward the eastern Gulf in the wake of Nine. \nElsewhere, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will follow a \ntrough along the E Mexican offshores through Wed night. Weak \nsurface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward this \nevening ahead of a stationary front over the norther Gulf. The \nfront will gradually weaken Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong NE \nto E winds and building seas are N of the front over the NE Gulf.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and\nan 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing only gentle to moderate trades\nwith seas 2-6 ft over the Caribbean this afternoon. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-17N \nbetween 60W-66W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the\nSW Caribbean south of 12N and west of 78W. \nFor the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the \nwestern Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds \nacross most of the basin through early Thu. High pressure is \nforecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will \ndrift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will \nincrease the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri.\nThese trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri \nnight through Sun night. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA 1011 mb low at 30N79W is slowly dragging a cold front that\nextends to 28N81W along the Florida peninsula. Winds north of the\nfront are NE strong with seas 6-8 ft. Scattered moderate\nconvection is occurring from 28N-31N west of 69W. Elsewhere a pair\nof weak surface troughs - from 22N47W to 27N46W and from 25N37N to\n31N38W - are interacting with an upper-level low to cause isolated\nmoderate convection from 25N-28N between 33W-46W. The remainder of\nthe tropical North Atlantic only has winds gentle to moderate with\nseas 3-6 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from \n31N74W to 30N79W and to inland Florida near Melbourne will begin \nto slowly move eastward across the area tonight as a cold front, \nthen stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to \nstrong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, \nremaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri \nevening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting \nwestward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh \nspeeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach \nfresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as newly \nformed Tropical Cyclone Nine tracks northward across the Gulf of \nAmerica. These winds will veer to the SE Sat night through Sun \nnight while weakening.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216533111070195719", "issued": "2026-10-06T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216533111070195719"}