{"msg": "730\nAXPZ20 KNHC 062124\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.5N 120.1W at 06/2100 UTC,\nmoving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.\nPeak seas are near 35 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong\nconvection is occurring from 18N-22N between 118W-122W. A \nwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next\nfew days, with a sharp northeastward turn late this week. Gradual\nto steady weakening is forecast the next few days.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nSouth of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low \npressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms. Currently, peak\nwinds are only near 20 kt and largest seas 7 ft. Scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-17N\nbetween 97W-105W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nwithin the next day or so while the system moves slowly west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy \nrainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern\nMexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.\nThe disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 \nhours. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave has an axis near 89W extending southward from\nCentral America to 06N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated \nmoderate conveciton is occurring from 05N-12N between 85W-94W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Panama near 09N78W to a \n1007 mb low near 13N99W. The monsoon trough restarts near \n13N115W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is occurring from 07N-17N between 97W-105W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 00N-03N between 103W-110W. \nIsolated moderate conveciton is occurring from 05N-12N between \n85W-94W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located west-southwest of Baja California, \nMexico, and Invest 92E offshore of southern Mexico. \nOutside of the impacts directly associated with Hurricane Rachel,\nwinds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft over the Pacific \noffshore zones and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-17N\nbetween 97W-105W.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.7N 121.0W Wed morning,\nweaken to a tropical storm near 21.2N 122.1W Wed afternoon, \n21.8N 123.3W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.5W Thu afternoon, 22.6N \n125.2W Fri morning, and 22.9N 125.0W Fri afternoon. Rachel will \nbecome post-tropical as it moves to 24.9N 121.7W Sat afternoon. A\nweakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja \nCalifornia Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the \nnortheast. A broad area of low pressure (Invest EP92) located \noffshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and\nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nwithin the next day or so, while the system moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward to northwestward. The disturbance has a high chance\nof formation in the next 48 hours. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient is causing only moderate and weaker\nwinds across forecast waters with seas 4-6 ft. \nFor the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over \nthe Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. \nHowever, looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to \nform south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter, while it moves generally \nwest-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation \nchance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located west-southwest offshore of Baja \nCalifornia, Mexico.\nOutside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure\ngradient is forcing only moderate and weaker winds across\nforecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is moving across the\nsouthern border between 100W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in\nmixed swell.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.7N 121.0W Wed morning,\nweaken to a tropical storm near 21.2N 122.1W Wed afternoon, \n21.8N 123.3W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.5W Thu afternoon, 22.6N \n125.2W Fri morning, and 22.9N 125.0W Fri afternoon. Rachel will \nbecome post-tropical as it moves to 24.9N 121.7W Sat afternoon. A\nweakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja \nCalifornia Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the \nnortheast. A broad area of low pressure (Invest EP92) located \noffshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and\nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nwithin the next day or so, while the system moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward to northwestward. The disturbance has a high chance\nof formation in the next 48 hours. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216516891753709575", "issued": "2026-10-06T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216516891753709575"}