{"id": "1216506365976772615", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-06T21:00:00Z", "msg": "605\nWTPZ43 KNHC 062031\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026\n \nRachel continues to be impacted by northeasterly wind shear and dry \nmid-level air. Recent satellite imagery shows that the northern \nportion of the circulation is eroding, with the eye now open on the \nnorthern side. Cloud-top temperatures have warmed, and deep \nconvection is now primarily confined to the southern semicircle. The \nlatest satellite intensity estimates range between 73 and 85 kt. \nGiven the degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity is \nlowered to 70 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion is westward, or 275/6 kt. Rachel is being steered \nwest-northwestward by a subtropical ridge located over the western \nUnited States, and this general motion is expected to continue over \nthe next couple of days. Thereafter, a mid- to upper-level trough is \nforecast to approach the U.S. West Coast, which will erode the \nwestern portion of the ridge. This should cause Rachel to slow down, \nturn sharply toward the northeast, and then re-accelerate. The \nlatest NHC track forecast lies very close to the previous official \nforecast, though it has been nudged slightly right and faster at the \nend of the period which trends towards the HCCA and GDMI track aids.\n \nDry air entrainment is steadily eroding the convection, and the \nsurrounding air mass is forecast to remain dry and stable. Although \nwind shear may briefly relax, the cyclone will soon be traversing \ncooler sea surface temperatures. Given the combination of these \nhostile environmental conditions, a steady weakening trend is \nanticipated. Convection is expected to become increasingly \nintermittent and disorganized, and the system is forecast to become \na post-tropical cyclone by day 4. The official NHC intensity \nforecast is very similar to the previous, showing gradual then \nsteady weakening throughout the forecast period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/2100Z 20.5N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 20.7N 121.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 21.2N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 21.8N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 22.3N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  09/0600Z 22.6N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 22.9N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 24.9N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  11/1800Z 28.5N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}