{"msg": "741\nAXNT20 KNHC 061641\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1630 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSouthwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): \nShowers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in\nassociation with a broad area of low pressure located over the\nsouthwestern Gulf of America near 22N96W. Continued development \nof this system is expected, and a tropical depression is \nanticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts \neastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas \nof heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of \nMexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to\nthe north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end \nof the week. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force \nwinds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of \nGulf Wed through Sat night. Numerous moderate to strong convection\nextends from 19N to 26N between 93W and 97W. Chances of tropical \ncyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 64.5W, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 60W and 65W. \nThe wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E to SE winds across \nthe central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters, as noted on \nrecent scatterometer satellite data.\nA tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is near \n18W, extending from 06N to 16N. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted near the northern end of the wave axis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends to\n14.5N27W to 07.5N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N40W to 06N46W to\n10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 17N \nbetween 23W and 40W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Invest AL92. \nA 1008 low is located over the northeastern Gulf near 29.5N86.5W,\nand a stationary front extends toward the southeast toward the \nBig Bend of Florida, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and\n2 to 4 ft seas are occurring north of these features. The \nstationary front also extends toward the west and southwest, \nparalleling the northern and western Gulf Coast. A surface trough \nthen continues from the tail of the front along the E Mexico \noffshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to \nlocally strong NE to NW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north \nand west of these features, just offshore of Texas and eastern \nMexico. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 also suggest \nstronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, a \nsurface trough extends from the south-central basin into the \neastern bay of Campeche, and mainly moderate breezes are noted in \nthis region. Otherwise, ahead of these boundaries, winds are \nmoderate or weaker, and seas slight to moderate. \nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a \ntrough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface \nridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late \ntoday ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed\nbefore it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and \nbuilding seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, \ncontinued development of a broad area of low pressure over the \nsouthwestern Gulf of America is expected, and a tropical \ndepression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it\ndrifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds \nand areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan \nPeninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is \nexpected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern \nGulf Coast by the end of the week. Regardless of development, \nfresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are \nforecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nFresh to locally strong NE to SE winds are occurring over the \neastern basin as noted on recent scatterometer data, associated \nwith a tropical wave progressing westward. Strong thunderstorms \nare also noted in this vicinity. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade \nwinds are occurring across much of the rest of the basin, \nsupported by the pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low over the \nsouth-central Caribbean and high pressure to the northeast. \nLocally fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring offshore of \nnorthwest Colombia. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and \nthunderstorms are offshore Panama associated with the eastern \nextension of the Pacific monsoon trough. \nFor the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support \nmoderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central \nCaribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move \nacross the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure \ngradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the\nbasin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop \nto the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through \nFri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over\nthe central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri, then moderate to fresh\nFri night through Sat night.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA 1013 mb low pressure is located off the northeastern coast of \nFlorida near 30.5N76.5W, and a stationary front extends eastward \nto 31N71.5W, and southwestward into central Florida. Mainly \nmoderate NE to E winds are noted north of the front, though fresh \nto locally strong NE winds are occurring immediately north of the \nlow, as noted on recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere, a surface \ntrough in the central Atlantic extends from a 1015 mb low near\n31N37W to 25N40W to 27N45W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh S to\nSW winds are occurring south and east of this feature, while \nfresh to locally strong NW to W winds are occurring to the north \nand west. Recent buoy and altimeter data depict 3 to 5 ft seas in \nthis region. Weak ridging prevails over the rest of the \nsubtropical and tropical waters, supporting moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight to moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition \nto a cold front and move slowly eastward across the area today, \nthen stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to \nstrong NW winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining \noff NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and \nslight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, \nhigh pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will \nincrease trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing \nSat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong \nspeeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure, \npossible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of \nAmerica. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216461136697655303", "issued": "2026-10-06T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216461136697655303"}