{"msg": "944\nAXPZ20 KNHC 061600\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1530 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.5N 119.5W at 06/1500 UTC, \nmoving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.\nPeak seas are near 33 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong\nconvection is occurring from 18N-22N between 118W-122W. A westward to \nwest-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days, with \na sharp northeastward turn late this week. Some fluctuations in \nintensity are possible the next day or so, with gradual weakening\nis forecast the rest of the week. Swells generated by Rachel \nwill continue to affect the coast of the Baja California \nPeninsula and portions of southern California for the next \nseveral days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nSouth of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): Shower and thunderstorm \ncoverage has been increasing in association with a broad area of \nlow pressure located offshore of southern Mexico. Currently, peak\nwinds are only near 20 kt and largest seas 7 ft. Scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-17N\nbetween 95W-105W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nwithin the next day or two while the system moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this \nsystem.The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next\n48 hours. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 11N85W to\na 1008 mb low near 13N98W. The monsoon trough restarts near\n10N119W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated \nstrong convection is occurring from 08N-17N between 95W-105W.\nScattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N-10N east of\n88W and from 00N-08N between 104W-113W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located west-southwest of Baja California, \nMexico, and Invest 92E offshore of southern Mexico. \nOutside of the impacts directly associated with Hurricane Rachel,\nwinds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Pacific\noffshore zones and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from \n08N-17N between 95W-105W.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.5N 119.5W at 8 AM PDT, \nand is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt \nwith gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 977 mb. \nRachel will move to 20.6N 120.4W this evening and seas will \ncontinue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California\nSur today as the hurricane continues to slowly move away from \nthe area. Rachel should reach near 21.0N 121.7W Wed morning, \nweaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 123.0W Wed evening, 22.0N \n124.3W Thu morning, 22.4N 125.4W Thu evening, and 22.8N 125.8W \nFri morning. Rachel will become post-tropical as it moves to \n24.2N 123.5W early Sat. A weakening Rachel should reach the \noffshore zones west of the Baja California peninsula again Sat \nevening as it turns back toward the northeast. Shower and \nthunderstorm coverage has been increasing in association with a \nbroad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form within \nthe next day or two while the system moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this \nsystem. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the \nnext 48 hours. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient is causing only moderate and weaker\nwinds across forecast waters with seas 4-6 ft. \nFor the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over \nthe Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. \nHowever, looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to \nform south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter, while it moves generally \nwest-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation \nchance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located west-southwest offshore of Baja \nCalifornia, Mexico.\nOutside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure\ngradient is forcing only moderate and weaker winds across\nforecast waters. Large SW swell is moving across the southern\nborder between 100W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed\nswell.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.5N 119.5W at 8 AM PDT, \nand is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt \nwith gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 977 mb. \nRachel will move to 20.6N 120.4W this evening and seas will \ncontinue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California\nSur today as the hurricane continues to slowly move away from \nthe area. Rachel should reach near 21.0N 121.7W Wed morning, \nweaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 123.0W Wed evening, 22.0N \n124.3W Thu morning, 22.4N 125.4W Thu evening, and 22.8N 125.8W \nFri morning. Rachel will become post-tropical as it moves to \n24.2N 123.5W early Sat. Shower and thunderstorm coverage has \nbeen increasing in association with a broad area of low pressure\n(Invest 92E) located offshore of southern Mexico. Currently, \npeak winds are only near 20 kt and largest seas 7 ft. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-17N\nbetween 95W-105W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nwithin the next day or two while the system moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this \nsystem. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the \nnext 48 hours. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is \nexpected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week.\nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system thereafter, while it moves generally \nwest-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation \nchance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216453180439101447", "issued": "2026-10-06T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216453180439101447"}