{"id": "1216438629798412295", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-06T15:00:00Z", "msg": "309\nWTPZ43 KNHC 061446\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026\n \nSatellite imagery this morning shows that Rachel's inner core has \ndegraded, with the system now featuring a large, ragged eye. The \ndeepest cold convection is confined mainly to the southern eyewall \nas the cyclone continues to encounter northeasterly wind shear and a \ndrier mid-level environment. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity \nestimate from TAFB held steady at T4.5/77 kt, while objective \nintensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 77 and 82 kt. Based \non these satellite trends and intensity estimates, the initial \nintensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is westward, or 275/7 kt. A general west to \nwest-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days \nwhile the system is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. In \na few days, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to approach the \nwest coast of the United States, which will weaken the ridge. This \nshould cause Rachel to slow down, make a sharp turn toward the \nnortheast, and increase in forward speed. The latest NHC track \nforecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains in \ngood agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind aids.\n\nThe surrounding environment is starting to take its toll on Rachel, \nwith a drier, more stable airmass and moderate northeasterly wind \nshear. Sea surface temperatures along the forecast track will also \ncool below 26C in about a day or so, which should induce a steady \nweakening trend. Simulated infrared imagery from the global models \nshows Rachel struggling to produce deep, organized convection later \nthis week. As a result, the latest NHC forecast now indicates that \nRachel will become a post-tropical cyclone by 96 h. The official NHC \nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one, with gradual \nweakening near the upper end of the guidance suite in the short \nterm, and then a faster weakening trend toward the consensus aids at \nthe end of the period.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/1500Z 20.5N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 20.6N 120.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 22.0N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  09/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 22.8N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 24.2N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  11/1200Z 27.7N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}