{"msg": "909\nAXNT20 KNHC 061058\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1040 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSouthwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): \nGradual development of a low near Tampico, Mexico is becoming more\nlikely, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the\nnext couple of days. This system is expected to drift eastward\nover the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of\ndevelopment, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very\nrough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat\nnight. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 20N to\n25N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection\nis elsewhere in the Bay of Campeche. Chances of tropical cyclone \nformation through the next 48 hours are high.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 63W, moving\nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\nis noted from 12N to 16N between 58W and 64W. The wave is also \nenhancing fresh to strong E winds across the central Lesser Antilles\nand adjacent waters.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to\n12N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 10N58W. \nScattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 16N between\n16W and 38W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Invest AL92. \nA weak cold front extends from Cape Canaveral to just N of Tampa\nBay where it stalls to a 1010 mb low near 29N86W to 28N94W to\n25N97W. A surface trough then continues from the tail of the front\nalong the E Mexico offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of\nCampeche. Observations across the northern Gulf coastal waters\ndepict fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and slight to\nmoderate seas. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 suggest\nstronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, ahead\nof these boundaries, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas slight\nto moderate. \nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a \ntrough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface \nridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late \ntoday ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed\nbefore it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and \nbuilding seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual \ndevelopment of a low NE of Tampico is becoming more likely, and a \na tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or \nlatter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift \neastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. \nRegardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and \nrough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed \nthrough Sat night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts \nfrom the National Hurricane Center.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nModerate to fresh E to SE winds prevail in the northwest and\ncentral Caribbean being supported by weak 1017 mb high to the SE\nof Bermuda. Moderate to fresh winds are also in the far E basin\ndue to the passage of a tropical wave that is bringing showers and\nisolated tstms to the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent\nwaters. Middle level diffluent flow is generating scattered\nshowers in the Windward Passage. Otherwise, scattered heavy\nshowers are offshore Panama associated with the E extension of the\nPacific monsoon. \nFor the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support \nmoderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central \nCaribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move \nacross the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure \ngradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the\nbasin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop \nto the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through \nFri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly \nwinds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate\nto fresh Fri night through Sat night.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front stalls near 30N73W and extends to 30N79W where it\ntransitions to a cold front that extends to Cape Canaveral,\nFlorida. Scattered showers and isolated tstms along with fresh NE\nwinds are behind the front. Weak surface ridging dominates the\nremainder subtropical waters, providing moderate or weaker winds\nand slight to moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition \nto a cold front and move slowly E over the area today, then stall \nfrom Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong NE \nwinds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE \nFlorida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight \nseas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high \npressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will \nincrease trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing \nSat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong \nspeeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure, \npossible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of \nAmerica.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216393825443741703", "issued": "2026-10-06T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216393825443741703"}