{"msg": "377\nAXPZ20 KNHC 060844\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0835 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.3N 118.6W at 06/0900 UTC, \nmoving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. \nPeak seas are near 30 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 115W \nand 121W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected \nduring the next few days. Gradual weakening is forecast during \nthe next 48 hours. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to \naffect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and portions of\nsouthern California for the next several days. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nSouth of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low\npressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions \nappear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form within the next couple of days while\nthe system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. \nInterests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor \nthe progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of\nformation in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 15N100W, and from \n11N118W to beyond 12N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection east of 113W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico, and\nInvest 92E off southern Mexico. \nOutside of the impacts directly associated with Hurricane Rachel,\nmoderate or weaker winds and rough to very rough seas are found \nin the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters.\nMeanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are\noccurring south of Mexico due to the developing low pressure\nsystem in the area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight\nto moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.4N 119.6W this afternoon, \n20.7N 120.8W Wed morning, 21.2N 122.1W Wed afternoon, weaken to a \ntropical storm near 21.8N 123.4W Thu morning, 22.2N 124.7W Thu \nafternoon, and 22.6N 125.6W Fri morning. Rachel will change little \nin intensity as it moves to the 23.7N 124.2W early Sat. Seas will \ncontinue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California \nSur today as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. \nLooking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located offshore of \nsouthern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, \nand a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple \nof days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico \nshould monitor the progress of this system.The disturbance has a \nhigh chance of formation in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient across the basin allows for light to \ngentle winds and mainly moderate seas north of 02N. Moderate to \nlocally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found between\nEcuador and the Galapagos Islands. A recent scatterometer\nsatellite pass showed fresh SW winds off southern Ecuador. Showers\nand isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the offshore waters \nof Central America producing gusty winds and higher seas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area will \nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters of \nCentral America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas \nthrough the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly \nwinds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the \nGalapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may \nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador \nlate this week as Invest 92E becomes better organized south of \nMexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.\nOutside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure \ndominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting \nmoderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. However, a cross \nequatorial southerly swell support seas to 8 ft in the southern \nwaters, south of 02N and east of 102W.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.3N 118.6W at 2 AM\nPDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 \nkt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 976 \nmb. Rachel will move to 20.4N 119.6W this afternoon, 20.7N 120.8W\nWed morning, 21.2N 122.1W Wed afternoon, weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 21.8N 123.4W Thu morning, 22.2N 124.7W Thu afternoon, \nand 22.6N 125.6W Fri morning. Rachel will change little in \nintensity as it moves to the 23.7N 124.2W early Sat. Farther \nsouth, long-period SW swell will reach as far as 05N between 95W\nand 125W through at least this weekend. Looking ahead, winds may\nincrease and seas build over the waters north of 10N and east of\n110W later this week as Invest 92E becomes better organized. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216367316971028487", "issued": "2026-10-06T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216367316971028487"}