{"msg": "520\nAXNT20 KNHC 060558\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSouthwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): \nA trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is \nproducing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although \nenvironmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for \ndevelopment, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next \ncouple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward \nthrough the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It \nis too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf \nCoast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of \nthis system. Chances of tropical cyclone formation through the \nnext 48 hours are high.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 61W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10\nto 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N \nbetween 55W and 62W. This wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E\nwinds across and in between the Lesser Antilles.\nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along \n86W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered\nmoderate convection is active over Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua\nand Costa Rica.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 15N17W and extends to\n06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 10N58W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is evident from 07N to 15N and E of 38W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Invest AL92. \nA frontal boundary extends from the Big Bend of FL across the\nnorthern Gulf to the coastal border of the United States and\nMexico. A 1011 mb low is analyzed near 29N87W. A surface trough is\nalso analyzed across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with\nanother surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered \nmoderate convection is along and near each of these features. \nModerate to fresh, locally strong NE winds and moderate seas are N\nand W of the front. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight\nseas prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a \ntrough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface \nridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late \nTue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed \nbefore it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and \nbuilding seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual \ndevelopment of a low E of Tampico is becoming more likely, and a a\ntropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter\nportion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward \nover the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of \ndevelopment, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are \nforecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Mariners \nshould monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane \nCenter.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper level trough over the W Caribbean supports scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of Cuba and \nHispaniola as well as the adjacent coastal waters. Broad ridging \nover the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong E to NE \nwinds over the south-central and eastern Caribbean, as noted in \nrecent scatterometer satellite data. Mostly moderate E to SE winds\nand 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. \nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will \nsupport moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and \ncentral Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia \nand the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to \nstrong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front \nwill move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the\npressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds \nacross the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop\nto the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through\nFri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly \nwinds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate\nto fresh Fri night through Sat night. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA frontal boundary extending off the NE FL coast supports \nscattered moderate convection along the central and northern FL \ncoast. In the central to eastern Atlantic, a surface trough SW of \nthe Azores is interacting with an upper level low overhead to \nsupport showers along and near the trough axis. Elsewhere,\nbroad ridging across the Atlantic supports gentle to moderate\ntrades and 3-6 ft seas across much of the basin. E winds are fresh\nto strong E of the Lesser Antilles, enhanced by a tropical wave in\nthe region. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move slowly E \nover the area tonight and early Tue, stalling from Bermuda to NE \nFlorida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough \nseas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed \nnight. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist \nelsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure \ndeveloping SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase \ntrades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and \nSat night.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216334954149183495", "issued": "2026-10-06T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216334954149183495"}