{"msg": "883\nAXPZ20 KNHC 060323\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0305 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.4N 117.9W at 06/0300 UTC,\nmoving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.\nPeak seas are near 31 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to scattered\nstrong convection is observed from 17N to 23N and between 115W\nand 121W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected \nfor the next several days. Fluctuations in strength are possible\nover the next day or so, with gradual weakening expected thereafter.\nSwells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of \nthe Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nSouth of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low\npressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions \nappear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form within the next few days while the \nsystem moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. \nInterests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor \nthe progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of\nformation in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 15N99W, and from 12N119W\nto beyond 12N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection \nwithin 120 nm of the monsoon trough.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico, and\nInvest 92E off southern Mexico. \nOutside of the impacts directly associated with Hurricane Rachel,\nmoderate or weaker winds and rough to very rough seas are found \nin the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters.\nMeanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are\noccurring south of Mexico due to the developing low pressure\nsystem in the area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight\nto moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.5N 119.0W Tue morning, \n20.6N 120.3W Tue evening, 21.0N 121.7W Wed morning, 21.5N 123.0W \nWed evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 124.4W Thu \nmorning, and 22.2N 125.4W Thu evening. Rachel will change little \nin intensity as it moves to the 22.7N 125.7W late Fri. Seas will\ncontinue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California\nSur tonight and Tue as Rachel continues to slowly move away from\nthe area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located near\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,\nand a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few \ndays while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.\nInterests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor \nthe progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of\nformation in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean sustain\nlight to gentle winds and mainly moderate seas north of the\nequator. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate \nseas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Showers\nand isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the offshore waters \nof Central America producing gusty winds and higher seas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area \nwill maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters \nof Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas\nthrough the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly\nwinds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the Galapagos\nIslands over the next several days. Winds and seas may increase \nacross the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador this week\nas Invest 92E becomes better organized south of Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.\nOutside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure \ndominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.4N 117.9W at 8 PM\nPDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 \nkt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 973 \nmb. Rachel will move to 20.5N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W \nTue evening, 21.0N 121.7W Wed morning, 21.5N 123.0W Wed evening, \nweaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 124.4W Thu morning, and \n22.2N 125.4W Thu evening. Rachel will change little in intensity \nas it moves to the 22.7N 125.7W late Fri Farther south, long-period\nSW swell will reach as far as the equator between 95W and 125W \nTue through late Thu. Looking ahead, winds may increase and seas \nbuild over the waters north of 10N and east of 110W later this \nweek as Invest 92E becomes better organized. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216304392961097735", "issued": "2026-10-06T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216304392961097735"}