{"msg": "446\nAXPZ20 KNHC 052052\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2040 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.3N 117.1W at 05/2100 UTC,\nmoving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.\nPeak seas are near 31 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to scattered\nstrong convection is observed within 180 nm SW and 120 nm SE\nsemicircles. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward \nmotion is expected for the next several days. Fluctuations in \nstrength are possible over the next few days, with gradual \nweakening beginning by the mid part of the week. Swells generated\nby Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells \nare likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nSouth of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low \npressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions \nappear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical \ndepression is expected to form during the next few days while the\nsystem moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. \nInterests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor \nthe progress of this system. The disturbance has a medium chance\nof formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next \n7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N85W to 15N105W, and\nfrom 11N115W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is from 04N to 07N between 85W and 90W.\nScattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 95W and\n105W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico, and\nInvest 92E off southern Mexico. \nRough to very rough seas along with swell and potential rough \nsurf along the coast are the main impacts of Rachel off Baja \nCalifornia Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere, the main\nfocus is Invest 92E, the developing low pressure off western \nOaxaca. Gentle breezes prevail across the remainder of the \nMexican offshore waters, with moderate seas in open waters and \nslight seas in the Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.5N 117.3W this evening,\n20.5N 118.9W Tue morning, and 20.7N 120.2W Tue evening. The \ncenter of Rachel will continue westward to 21.1N 121.7W Wed \nmorning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N 123.1W Wed \nevening, and move to 22.0N 124.6W Thu morning. Seas will continue\nto subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California this \nmorning, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur \ntoday as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. \nLooking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located just to the \nsouth of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered\nshowers and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions \nappear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical \ndepression is expected to form during the middle to latter \nportion of the week while the system moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to \nsouthwestern coast of Mexico. The disturbance has a medium chance\nof formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next \n7 days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient dominate much of the basin north of the\nequator, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to\nmoderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and\nmoderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nIslands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the \noffshore waters of Central America producing gusty winds and \nhigher seas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area \nwill maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters \nof Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas\nthrough the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly\nwinds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the\nGalapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nthis week as a broad area of low pressure becomes better organized\nsouth of Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.\nOutside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure \ndominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 118.2W tonight, \n20.4N 119.5W Tue afternoon, 20.7N 120.9W Wed night, and 21.2N \n122.3W Wed afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm \nnear 21.6N 123.7W Thu morning, then move to 21.9N 124.9W Thu \nafternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to \n22.3N 126.0W Fri afternoon. Farther south, long-period SW swell\nwill reach as far as the equator between 95W and 125W Tue through\nlate Thu. Looking ahead, winds may increase and seas build over \nthe waters north of 10N and east of 110W later this week as \nInvest 92E becomes better organized. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216227443268878343", "issued": "2026-10-05T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216227443268878343"}