{"msg": "122\nAXNT20 KNHC 052037\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2030 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSouthwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): A trough of low \npressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental \nconditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development \nis becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to \nform during the middle portion of the week. This system is \nexpected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it\nturns northward. It is too early to determine the specific \nimpacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should \nclosely monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance \nthrough 48 hours and the next seven day is high.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 60W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10\nto 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N \nbetween 56W and 62W. \nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along \n85W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered\nmoderate convection is active over Nicaragua and Costa Rica.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 17N16W and extends to\n07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate\nconvection is evident from 11N to 15N between 18W and 24W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on Invest AL92. \nA cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area near 30N84W to\n28N93W, where it becomes a stationary front and reaches to the\nmouth of the Rio Grande near 26N97W. Farther south a trough\nextends from 28N92W to the 1010 mb low pressure (Invest AL92) near\n22N96W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from\n20N to 27N between 90W and 97W. A recent scatterometer satellite\npass indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds north and west of the\nfront along the coasts of Texas and Mexico as far south as\nVeracruz. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are\n3-5 ft off Texas, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a \ntrough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface \nridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late \nTue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through\nWed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and\nbuilding seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual\ndevelopment of a trough in the southwestern Gulf is becoming more\nlikely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the \nmiddle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to \ndrift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. \nRegardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough\nseas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. \nMariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National \nHurricane Center.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nDivergent flow aloft near an upper low centered over Jamaica is\nsupporting afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Haiti,\nJamaica, eastern Cuba and adjacent waters south of Haiti to 15N.\nBroad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh E \nwinds over the south-central Caribbean, as noted in recent\nscatterometer satellite data. A concurrent altimeter pass\nindicated seas to 8 ft off Colombia in this area. Mostly moderate\nE to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the\nCaribbean. Fresh E winds and seas to 7 ft are likely ongoing over\nAtlantic waters just east of the southern Leeward and northern\nWindward Islands, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are\nactive.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will \nsupport moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and \ncentral Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia \nand the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to \nstrong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front \nwill move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the\npressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds \nacross the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop\nto the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through\nFri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly \nwinds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate\nto fresh Fri night through Sat night. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA few showers and thunderstorms are active off Jacksonville,\nFlorida, along a cold front reaching from 1014 mb low pressure\nnear 31N79W to 30N81W. Ridging dominates the remainder of the western\nAtlantic, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure east of Bermuda near \n31N58W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds\nand 3-5 ft west of 50W, except for an area of fresh winds and 7 ft\nseas east of Martinique. Farther east, a few showers and\nthunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from weak 1014 \nmb low pressure near 32N35W to 26N40W. This is breaking up the\nsubtropical ridge normally in place there, supporting light to\ngentle breezes across the north Atlantic basin south of 31N and east\nof 50W, with 3-5 ft seas in a mix of swell.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move slowly E over the area\ntonight and early Tue, stalling from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue \nnight into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will \nfollow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. \nModerate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere \nthrough Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing \nSE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N\nto moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216224526605615111", "issued": "2026-10-05T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216224526605615111"}