{"id": "1216223694072676359", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-05T21:00:00Z", "msg": "078\nWTPZ43 KNHC 052033\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026\n \nThe weakening trend of Rachel has paused for now. Satellite images\nsuggest that the hurricane has become slightly better organized\nover the past several hours. The eye of the system is quite large,\nwell defined and warm, and deep convection remains fairly\nsymmetric around the center. A blend of the latest satellite\nintensity estimates supports nudging the initial intensity up to 80\nkt.\n \nThe hurricane is moving westward at 7 kt steered by a high pressure \nsystem to the north-northeast of the cyclone. A continued westward \nto west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as \nthe high pressure system remains the primary steering feature. \nHowever, by the weekend, the high is expected to weaken as a mid- to \nupper-level trough amplifies near the west coast of the U.S. This \npattern change should cause Rachel to slow down and then turn \nnortheastward by the end of the forecast period. No significant \nchanges were made to the previous track forecast, and this one lies \ngenerally near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nAlthough Rachel appears a little stronger than earlier, no notable \nchanges to the intensity forecasts were made. The hurricane is \nexpected to gradually weaken as it moves over progressively cooler \nwaters and into a much drier airmass. The models have not changed \nmuch this cycle, and this prediction is in line with the HCCA, \nGDMI, and IVCN aids.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/2100Z 20.3N 117.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 20.7N 120.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 21.2N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  08/0600Z 21.6N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 21.9N 124.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 22.3N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 23.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}