{"msg": "790\nAXNT20 KNHC 051751\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1751 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSouthwestern Gulf of America (AL92):\nA trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is\nproducing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although\nenvironmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive,\ngradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical\ndepression is expected to form during the middle portion of the\nweek. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next\ncouple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to\ndetermine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but\ninterests there should closely monitor the progress of this\nsystem. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium. Formation\nchance through 7 days is high.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 58W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10\nto 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N \nbetween 56W and 61W. \nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along \n84.5W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few \nshowers associated with the wave are over the SW Caribbean.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N41W. The\nITCZ extends from 08N41W to 11N55W. Aside from the convection \nassociated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated \nstrong convection is observed from 08.5N to 19N and east of 34W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease read the Special Features section above for more\ninformation on AL92. \nA frontal boundary extends from Biloxi, Mississippi to SE \nLouisiana to Port Mansfield, Texas. A trough extends from \nnorthern Florida to SE Louisiana coastal waters to 19.5N94.5W, \nwhich is generating numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms \nwest of 90.5W. Similar convective activity is over the NE Gulf \ncoastal waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are behind the \nfront over the NW Gulf coastal waters, while fresh to strong winds\nare west of the trough. Seas within these winds are 4 to 6 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere over the central and SE\nGulf along with 2 to 4 ft seas.\nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a \ntrough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface \nridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late \nTue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through\nWed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and\nbuilding seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual\ndevelopment of a trough in the southwestern Gulf is becoming more\nlikely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the \nmiddle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to \ndrift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. \nRegardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough\nseas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn inverted trough over the central Caribbean continue to support\nisolated showers and thunderstorms in the Windward Passage, the \nlee side of E Cuba adjacent waters and the SW basin. Surface high \npressure over the central subtropical Atlantic continue to support\nmoderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, except for\nlocally fresh winds north of Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds \nprevail elsewhere. Seas within the locally strong winds are \nmoderate to 7 ft, while slight to moderate seas prevail \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will \nsupport moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and \ncentral Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia \nand the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to \nstrong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front \nwill move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the\npressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds \nacross the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop\nto the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through\nFri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly \nwinds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorm prevail over the \nsouthern Bahamas and adjacent waters, including the Great Bahama \nBank. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated \nby surface ridging anchored by high pressure north of the Azores,\nwhich is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas. Otherwise, the remnants of a front are analyzed as \na surface trough that extends from 31N33W to 27N35.5W to 27N46W. \nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are present along\nthe trough, with the strongest convection depicted north of 26.5N\nbetween 30W and 37W. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western \nAtlantic will continue to shift eastward through today ahead of a \ncold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue night \ninto Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the \nfront, but remain off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or \nweaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. \nOtherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda \nand shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to\nfresh speeds. ", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216191853718175751", "issued": "2026-10-05T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216191853718175751"}