{"id": "1216155464459943943", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "msg": "638\nWTPZ43 KNHC 051446\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026\n \nRachel's satellite appearance continues to depict a ring of deep \nconvection around a large eye. The system is dealing with some \nnortheasterly wind shear, which has brought drier air that has \nentrained into the system and eroded some of the northern, \nparticularly northwestern, side of the circulation. Satellite \nintensity estimates have decreased, with the TAFB subjective Dvorak \nclassification a T4.5/77 kt, and using this estimate, the initial \nintensity is lowered to 75 kt.\n\nThe system is moving westward or 275/6 kt, steered by a mid-level \nridge located over the southwestern United States and eastern \nPacific. This general forward motion should continue for the next \nseveral days. Toward the end of the period, a mid- to upper-level \ntrough will move into the eastern Pacific northwest of the cyclone, \ncausing the system to slow and make a sharp northeastward turn. The \nlatest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and \ncontinues to blend the HCCA and GDMI model solutions.\n\nRachel is traversing marginally warm sea surface temperatures of \naround 26-27C while dealing with some shear and drier air. Given \nrecent structural changes, there will likely be fluctuations in \nintensity over the next day or so. Beyond 36 to 48 h, sea surface \ntemperatures cool along the forecast track, which, combined with \nincreasing dry air, will induce a more steady weakening trend. \nDetermining when Rachel becomes post-tropical has been tricky, as \nthe aforementioned trough that will turn the system northeastward \nmay induce some baroclinic support to maintain convection. Simulated \ninfrared imagery shows that convection may become less organized by \nday 5, and the latest NHC forecast now depicts the system becoming \npost-tropical at that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast \nremains at the high end of the guidance envelope near the HCCA and \nGDMI in the short term, then trends closer to the rest of the \nconsensus aids as the system weakens through the end of the forecast \nperiod. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/1500Z 20.4N 116.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 21.1N 121.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  08/0000Z 21.7N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 22.0N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 22.4N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 23.1N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}