{"msg": "364\nAXNT20 KNHC 051022\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1010 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 57W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10\nto 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 21N \nbetween 49W and 62W. \nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along \n84W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers\nassociated with the wave are over the NW and SW Caribbean.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N34W. \nThe ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 09N54W. Aside from the convection\nassociated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated\nstrong convection is observed from 08N to 19N between 14W and 30W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front extends from southern Alabama to SE Louisiana\nto southern Texas coastal waters. A pre-frontal trough extends\nfrom northern Florida to SE Louisiana coastal waters to a 1011 mb\nlow offshore Tampico, which is generating scattered heavy showers\nand tstms over the Bay of Campeche and NE Mexico offshores.\nSimilar shower activity is over the NE Gulf and along the NW Gulf\ncoastal waters. Fresh to near gale-force NE winds are behind the\nfront over the NW Gulf coastal waters while moderate or weaker\nwinds are elsewhere over the cental and SE Gulf. Recent altimeter\nand buoy data show 2 to 5 ft seas basin wide, likely higher in the\nareas of strong convection.  \nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow the \ntrough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface \nridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift E through late Tue \nahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through Wed\nbefore it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and \nbuilding seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, broad \nlow pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Tue night \ninto Wed. Although environmental conditions are expected to be \nonly marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is \npossible and a tropical depression could form by the second half \nof this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning \nnorthward. Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong \nwinds and rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed \nthrough Sat night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn inverted trough over the central Caribbean continue to support\nscattered showers and isolated tstms in the Windward Passage, the\nlee side of E Cuba adjacent waters and the SW basin. Surface high\npressure over the central subtropical Atlantic continue to support\nmoderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, and moderate\nor weaker winds elsewhere. Seas with these winds are moderate to 7\nft while slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.  \nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will \nsupport moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and \ncentral Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia \nand the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to \nstrong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front \nwill move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the\npressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds \nacross the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop\nto the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through\nFri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly \nwinds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nScattered showers and isolated tstms prevail over the southern\nBahamas and adjacent waters, including the Great Bahama Bank. \nThe remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by\nsurface ridging anchored by high pressure near the Azores, which\nis supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate\nseas. Otherwise, the remnants of a front are analyzed as a surface\ntrough that extends from 31N32W to 27N39W to 29N44W. Scattered\nheavy showers and tstms are within 150 nm ahead of the trough. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western \nAtlantic across Bermuda will continue to shift eastward through \ntoday ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE \nFlorida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough \nseas will follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed \nnight. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist \nelsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure \ndeveloping SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase \neasterly winds S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216103591587446791", "issued": "2026-10-05T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216103591587446791"}