{"msg": "222\nAXPZ20 KNHC 050939\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0935 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.4N 115.6W at 05/0900 UTC,\nmoving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. \nPeak seas are near 32 ft (10 M). Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 112W \nand 118W. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion \nis expected for the next several days. Fluctuations in strength \nare possible over the next few days, with gradual weakening \nbeginning by the mid part of the week. Swells generated by Rachel\nwill continue to affect the coast of the Baja California \nPeninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nSouth of Southern Mexico:\nA broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the\nGulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered showers and\nthunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable\nfor gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to\nform during the middle to latter portion of the week while the\nsystem moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just\noffshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. The\ndisturbance has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours\nand a high chance in the next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near\n10N85W to south of Mexico near 13N99W and then from 12N116W to \nbeyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis noted north of 02N and east of 107W. Similar convection is \nfound south of 15N and between 110W and 130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.\nOutside of the direct influence of Hurricane Rachel, high\npressure north of the area support gentle to moderate winds and\nseas of 5-8 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia N of 26N. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel \nare still impacting the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, \nparticularly between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas.\nElsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are\naffecting the offshore waters of Mexico east of 105W and in the\nsouthern Gulf of California. Gusty winds and higher seas are\nnoted with these storms. In the remainder of the Mexican\noffshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate\nseas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.5N 116.7W this afternoon,\n20.6N 118.2W Tue morning, 20.7N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 21.0N \n121.0W Wed morning, 21.5N 122.5W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a \ntropical storm near 22.0N 124.1W Thu morning. Rachel will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to the 22.4N 126.7W early Fri. \nSeas will continue to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of \nCalifornia this morning, and across the offshore waters of Baja \nCalifornia Sur today as Rachel continues to slowly move away from\nthe area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located just\nto the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing \nscattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions\nappear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression\nis expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the \nweek while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward,\njust offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. \nThe disturbance has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 \nhours and a high chance in the next 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient dominate much of the basin north of the\nequator, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to\nmoderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and\nmoderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nIslands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the \noffshore waters of Central America producing gusty winds and \nhigher seas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area \nwill maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters \nof Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas\nthrough the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly\nwinds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the\nGalapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nthis week as a broad area of low pressure becomes better organized\nsouth of Mexico.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.\nOutside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure \ndominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.4N 115.6W at 2 AM\nPDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 \nkt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 \nmb. Rachel will move to 20.5N 116.7W this afternoon, 20.6N 118.2W\nTue morning, 20.7N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 21.0N 121.0W Wed \nmorning, 21.5N 122.5W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 22.0N 124.1W Thu morning. Rachel will change little in\nintensity as it moves to the 22.4N 126.7W early Fri. Looking\nahead, winds may increase and seas build over the eastern waters\nlater this week as an area of low pressures becomes better\norganized.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216095155803521031", "issued": "2026-10-05T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216095155803521031"}