{"msg": "551\nAXNT20 KNHC 050500\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0500 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, moving westward at \n10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to \n19N between 49W and 60W. \nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along \n83W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers\nand isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 07N40W. The\nITCZ extends from 07N40W to 11N53W. Aside from the convection \nassociated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection \nis observed from 07N to 15N and E of 35W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front is over the NW Gulf. A weak low pressure of \n1010 mb is analyzed near 22N96W. A surface trough extends from the\nlow center to the Big Bend of FL. Fresh to locally strong W to NW\nwinds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted between the \ntrough axis and the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are associated with these features. Similar \nconvective activity is also noted over the NE Gulf. Numerous\nmoderate to strong convection is affecting the Yucatan Peninsula.\nA ridge extending from the western Atlantic into Florida is \nsupporting moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and moderate \nseas across much of the central and eastern Gulf. \nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a \ntrough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface \nridging over the NE Gulf will continue to shift E through late Tue\nahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall over the \nnorthern Gulf Mon through Tue night. Fresh NE to E winds and \nbuilding seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, broad \nlow pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Wed night \ninto Thu. Although environmental conditions are expected to be \nonly marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a\ntropical depression could form late this week while the system \ndrifts northward through Fri. Regardless of development, moderate \nto fresh winds and building seas are forecast over the western \nGulf during that period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper-level trough over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola is\nhelping to induce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over\nthese regions. High pressure north of the area, combined with the\nColombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade \nwinds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. Locally\nstrong trades are seen offshore NW Colombia.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will \nsupport moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and \ncentral Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia \nand the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will pulse to strong \nspeeds at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move \nacross the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure \ngradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the\nbasin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nAn area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is located N of\nPuerto Rico, and is associated with an upper-level low. A surface\ntrough is analyzed over the central Atlantic, and extends from\n31N32W to 28N38W to 29N44W. Scattered moderate convection is along \nthe trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is \ndominated by high pressure producing mainly gentle to moderate \nwinds and moderate seas. Locally fresh NE winds are seen SW of the\nCanary Islands.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western \nAtlantic across Bermuda will continue to shift eastward through \nMon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE \nFlorida by midweek. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will \nfollow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to\nmoderate winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through \nFri.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216040263973961735", "issued": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216040263973961735"}