{"msg": "207\nAXPZ20 KNHC 050359\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0325 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 114.8W at 05/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with\ngusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft (10 M). Numerous \nmoderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 15N to\n22N and between 111W and 117W. A continued slow motion is \nexpected for the next several days. Fluctuations in strength are \npossible overnight, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken starting\nMonday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the \ncoast of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of \ndays. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and \nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near\n09N85W to south of Mexico near 14N99W and then from 14N121W to\nbeyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis noted north of 05N and between 83W and 99W. Similar convection\nis found from 05N to 12N and west of 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.\nAway from the direct influence of Hurricane Rachel, gentle to \nmoderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, \nprevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds\nand slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas \nof 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are still impacting the \noffshore waters of Baja California Sur, particularly between Cabo\nSan Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are beginning to subside \nnear the entrance to the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 115.9W Mon morning,\n20.4N 117.4W Mon evening, 20.4N 118.9W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W\nTue evening, 21.1N 121.8W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed evening. Rachel will change little in\nintensity as it moves to the 22.2N 125.8W late Thu. Seas will \ncontinue to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California \ntonight, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur on\nMon as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. Looking\nahead, a broad area of low pressure is located just to the south\nof the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear \nfavorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is \nexpected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week \nwhile the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward,\njust offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico.\nThe chance of formation is low over the next 48 hours and high\nover the next 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient dominate much of the basin north of the\nequator, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to\nmoderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and\nmoderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos \nIslands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the \noffshore waters of Central America, especially west of Panama, \nproducing gusty winds and higher seas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area \nwill maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters \nof Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas\nthrough the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly\nwinds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the\nGalapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may\nincrease across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador\nnext week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop\nover the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.\nOutside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure \ndominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 115.9W Mon morning,\n20.4N 117.4W Mon evening, 20.4N 118.9W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W\nTue evening, 21.1N 121.8W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed evening. Rachel will change little in\nintensity as it moves to the 22.2N 125.8W late Thu. Rachel will \nweaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon. Rough\nseas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the \nforecast waters roughly from 15N to 25N between 110W and 120W on Mon.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1216028266519527431", "issued": "2026-10-05T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1216028266519527431"}