{"id": "1216011504227581959", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "msg": "402\nWTPZ43 KNHC 050234\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 PM MST Sun Oct 04 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation for Rachel has degraded over the last\nseveral hours as the eye has filled in and the inner core seems to\nhave come apart as well. Based on water vapor imagery, it appears \nthat dry air has managed to make its way into the core of the\nhurricane. Using a combination of the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix\nand objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the initial\nintensity has been lowered to 85 kt. This level of intensity could\nbe generous given the structure of the hurricane at this time.\n \nRachel is moving west-northwestward around 6 kt. The high pressure \nsystem to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer it on a \ngenerally westward track through the middle of the week. Afterwards, \nthe high should weaken and shift eastward as a trough cuts off close \nto southern California. This should cause Rachel to turn back to \nthe west-northwest by the end of the week. The current NHC forecast \ntrack is very close to the previous one, with minor adjustments \nbeing made based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. \n\nMore fluctuations in intensity are possible overnight for Rachel. \nHowever, the cyclone is expected to enter a more drier environment \nas it moves farther westward and the sea-surface temperatures are \nexpected to be 26C or less in a few days. Therefore, gradual \nweakening is expected to start sometime on Monday and continue \nthrough the forecast period. The current NHC intensity forecast \nshows a weakening trend similar to the previous one, however the\nforecast has been adjusted based on the trends of the HCCA forecast \naid.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/0300Z 20.2N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 20.3N 115.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 20.4N 117.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 20.4N 118.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 20.6N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  07/1200Z 21.1N 121.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 21.6N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 22.2N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 22.5N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}