{"msg": "405\nAXNT20 KNHC 042304\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, moving westward at \n15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection \nis noted from 08N to 15N between 51W and 57W. Moisture associated\nwith this wave will reach the Windward Islands tonight into Mon\nincreasing the chances of rain. This tropical wave is forecast to \nbring a wetter and more active pattern over Puerto Rico Wednesday\ninto Thursday.\nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along \n81W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers\nand isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 17.5N16W and continues southwestward to 10N26W \nto 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 10N50W. Aside from \nthe convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered \nmoderate convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 16W and\n30W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front is over the NW Gulf generating some convective\nactivity. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas \nfollow the front. A weak low pressure of 1008 mb is analyzed \nnear 21.5N96W. A surface trough extends from the low center \nnorthward to near 27N96W. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds \nand moderate to locally rough seas are noted between the trough \naxis and the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms\nare associated with these features. Similar convective activity \nis also noted over the NE Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are \naffecting the Yucatan Peninsula. A ridge extending from the \nwestern Atlantic into Florida is supporting moderate to locally \nfresh SE to S winds and moderate seas across much of the central \nand eastern Gulf. \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough\nalong the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. The above\nmentioned ridge will shift SE into midweek ahead of a slowly \nmoving front, which will stall over the northern Gulf. Fresh NE \nto E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front, with \nfresh to occasionally strong NW to N winds possible off Veracruz \nwest of the front through late Mon. Gentle to moderate easterly \nwinds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the latter \npart of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is \nlikely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern\nGulf of America. Although environmental conditions are only expected\nto be marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and\na tropical depression could form late this week while the system\ndrifts northward.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over\neastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. An upper-level low \nover Hispaniola is helping to induce this convective activity. \nHigh pressure north of the area, combined with the Colombian Low \nis supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much \nof the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will \nsupport moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and \ncentral Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia \nand the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will pulse at night \nthrough Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters \nN of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and \nsupporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nAn area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is located N of\nPuerto Rico, and is associated with an upper-level low. A surface\ntrough is analyzed over the central Atlantic, and extends from\n31N32W to 28N36W to 29N43W. Scattered moderate convection is just\nahead of the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast\nwaters is dominated by high pressure producing mainly gentle to \nmoderate winds and moderate seas.  \nFor the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western Atlantic\nacross Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward through Mon \nahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE Florida \nby mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow \nthe front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate\nwinds and slight seas will persist elsewhere.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215970291463454727", "issued": "2026-10-04T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215970291463454727"}