{"msg": "756\nAXPZ20 KNHC 042154\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.1N 114.3W at 04/2100 UTC,\nmoving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. \nPeak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to scattered\nstrong convection is noted within 75 nm of center. A continued \nslow motion is expected through the middle of the week. Fluctuations \nin strength are possible through tonight, but Rachel is expected\nto slowly weaken beginning on Monday. Swells generated by Rachel \nwill continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula\nthrough Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 12N96W, then\nresumes W of Rachel near 13N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to \n14N between 85W and 94W, from 00N to 06N between 100W and 110W,\nand from 04N to 09N W of 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate\nwinds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the\noffshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate\nseas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated\nby Rachel are still impacting the offshore waters of Baja California\nSur, particularly between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas\nare beginning to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.2N 115.2W Mon\nmorning, 20.3N 116.6W Mon afternoon, 20.4N 118.2W Tue morning, \n20.6N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 20.9N 121.1W Wed morning, and 21.4N \n122.7W Wed afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near \n22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon. Seas will continue to subside near\nthe entrance to the Gulf of California tonight, and across the\noffshore waters of Baja California Sur on Mon as Rachel continues\nto slowly move away from the area. Looking ahead, a broad area \nof low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so \njust to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, \nenvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,\nand a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle \nto latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to \nsouthwestern coast of Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nGentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell \nprevail across the region. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area will \nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along \nwith mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and\nseas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El\nSalvador next week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast \nto develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 15N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting\nmoderate to locally fresh trades winds N of the monsoon trough to\nabout 18N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the\nmonsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters\nfrom 10N to 24N between 107W and 119W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.2N 115.2W Mon morning,\n20.3N 116.6W Mon afternoon, 20.4N 118.2W Tue morning, 20.6N 119.7W\nTue afternoon, 20.9N 121.1W Wed morning, and 21.4N 122.7W Wed afternoon.\nRachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon.\nRough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the\nforecast waters roughly from 15N to 25N between 110W and 120W on Mon.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215956461781942279", "issued": "2026-10-04T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215956461781942279"}