{"id": "1215941508835246087", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "msg": "793\nWTPA42 PHFO 042038\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  57\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sun Oct 04 2026\n \nRecent visible and infrared imagery show that outer rainbands have \ndeveloped over the western semicircle, and Nolo is no longer \nexhibiting annular appearance. Shortly after the previous advisory, \ninfrared imagery showed warming of the cloud tops and a thinning of \nthe inner core convection over the southwestern quadrant. The eye \nhas become more cloud filled and not as warm with an eye temperature \naround 7 C. A recent GMI microwave pass shows that the inner core is \nvertically aligned and perhaps the recent satellite degradation \ncould just be a brief lull. Subjective and objective satellite \nintensity estimates range from 95 to 102 kt. Based on a blend of \nthese data, the initial intensity is maintained at 100 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/15 kt. Nolo \nis expected to continue being steered generally westward by a strong \nsubtropical ridge located to its north. Over the next several days, \nthe hurricane should maintain a similar or slightly slower forward \nspeed along this heading. By the end of the forecast period, Nolo is \nforecast to reach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge, \nwhich should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn \nwest-northwestward to northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast \nis very similar to the previous and lies near the HCCA and GDMI \ntrack aids.\n \nNolo is currently situated within a favorable environment, with warm \nsea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear, some slight \nstrengthening is possible over the next 18 to 24 hours. Between 24 \nand 36 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area of \nincreasing vertical wind shear and a much drier mid-level airmass. \nThe combination of strong shear and dry air entrainment will induce \na steady weakening trend through the middle-to-end of the week. The \nNHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance suite \nthrough the short term, leaning closest to the regional hurricane \nmodels, before trending back toward the various consensus aids by \nthe end of the forecast period.\n \nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\nthis system. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan.\nAdvisories issued by RSMC Tokyo are found on the web at:\n \nwww.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm\n \nFor U.S. interests, see advisories issued by the Joint Typhoon\nWarning Center (JTWC) in Honolulu, Hawaii. Advisories issued by JTWC\ncan be found on the web at:\n \nwww.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/2100Z 24.2N 180.0E  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 24.8N 177.7E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 25.2N 174.6E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 25.1N 170.9E   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 25.2N 166.4E   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  07/0600Z 25.7N 162.3E   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 26.2N 158.2E   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 27.8N 152.0E   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 29.4N 149.7E   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}