{"id": "1215940421211750407", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "msg": "728\nWTPZ43 KNHC 042032\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n200 PM MST Sun Oct 04 2026\n \nRachel has not changed much during the past several hours. The\nhurricane continues to have a well established inner core, but the\neye has become a little more cloud-filled and ragged compared to\nthis morning. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from\n85 to 97 kt, and based on that data and the relatively steady\nstate appearance of the system, the initial intensity is held at 90\nkt. A 1616 UTC ASCAT-B was helpful in adjusting the initial wind\nradii.\n \nThe hurricane has turned westward over the past several hours, with\nthe initial motion now estimated to be 270/5 kt. A high pressure\nsystem to the north of Rachel should keep the system on a slow\nwestward track through the middle of the week. After that time, the\nhigh is expected to weaken and shift eastward as a trough cuts off\nnear the southern California coast, which should allow Rachel to\nturn back to the west-northwest by the end of the week. Little\nchange was made to the previous track forecast, and this one lies\nnear the best-performing models of the year so far, HCCA and GDMI.\n \nRachel will likely maintain its strength through tonight. However,\nas the hurricane moves farther west, it will be entering a\nprogressively drier airmass and moving over sub 26C waters in a\ncouple of days. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast to begin on\nMonday and continue through the week. The NHC intensity forecast\nlies generally near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is\nlargely an update of the previous one.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/2100Z 20.1N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 20.2N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 20.3N 116.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 20.4N 118.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 20.6N 119.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  07/0600Z 20.9N 121.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 21.4N 122.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 22.3N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 22.6N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}