{"msg": "426\nAXNT20 KNHC 041618\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1615 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 51W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15\nto 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extend\nfrom 08N to 18N between 48W and the Lesser Antilles.\nA tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 81W, \nsouth of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is from 11N to 18N between 78W and 83.5W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues \nsouthwestward to 10N37W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 12.5N53.5W\nto 12N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical\nwave, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N and west of\n34W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nMiddle to upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow by SE\nflow from the Caribbean continue to fuel scattered showers and \nthunderstorms along the E Mexico offshores and over the NW Gulf \nbehind a pre-frontal surface trough that extends from 29.5N92.5W \nto S of Tampico, Mexico. Similar shower activity is ongoing over \nthe NE Gulf offshore waters in association to a deep layered \ntrough. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are \nbehind the trough. Ahead of the trough, a weaker pressure gradient\nsupport gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough \nalong the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. A ridge will \nextend from the western Atlantic into north Florida through today,\nsupporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas \nacross much of the central and eastern Gulf. This ridge will shift\nSE into midweek ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall \nover the northern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are \nforecast N of the front, with fresh to occasionally strong NW to N\nwinds possible off Veracruz west of the front. Gentle to moderate\neasterly winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the\nlatter part of the week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nModerate to fresh E to SE winds are across the NW and central\nCaribbean waters while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.\nSeas are moderate over the central basin and slight elsewhere. An\nupper level trough over the central Caribbean is supporting a\ncluster of showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N between 70W\nand 76W. \nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will \nsupport moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and \ncentral Caribbean through Tue morning, except in the Gulf of \nHonduras where fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, and \noffshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh to strong \nwill pulse at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move\nacross the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure\ngradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across \nthe basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA broad surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high NE of Bermuda \nand a 1024 mb high W of the Azores near 36N44W extends across the\nsubtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds \nand slight to moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE winds\nnear the Canary Islands. An upper level low north of the\nHispaniola is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. \nWinds and seas are likely higher in this area of convection. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western \nAtlantic across Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward \nthrough Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to \nNE Florida by mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas \nwill follow the front, but stay over the NE coastal and offshore \nwaters of NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate and slight \nseas will persist elsewhere. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215890414414528519", "issued": "2026-10-04T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215890414414528519"}