{"msg": "407\nAXPZ20 KNHC 041539\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 113.8W at 04/1500 UTC, \nmoving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with \ngusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous \nmoderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of\ncenter. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn toward\nthe west is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to\ncontinue through the middle of the week.  Fluctuations in strength \nare possible today, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken \nbeginning on Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to \naffect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday.\nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local weather\noffice. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nRachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N90W to 14N106W, then\nresumes W of Rachel near 11N120W to beyond 07N140W. A cluster of\nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between \n88W and 92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nseen from 04N to 09N W of 126W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to\nmoderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, \nprevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds\nand slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas \nof 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance\nto the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California\nSur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico west of \n105W.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.7W \nthis evening, 20.5N 115.8W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.5W Mon evening,\n20.7N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.9N 120.5W Tue evening, and 21.3N \n122.2W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near \n22.2N 125.2W early Thu. Seas generated by Rachel will continue \nto propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,\nand mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon night. \nRough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, \nincluding the entrance to the Gulf through tonight. Moderate to \nfresh NE to E winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region \nthrough tonight, then winds and seas may increase early this \nweek as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over \nthe next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail \nacross the region. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will\nmaintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along\nwith mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and\nseas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El\nSalvador next week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to \ndevelop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of\nTehuantepec.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Rachel.\nOutside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast\nwaters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between\nthe ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting\ngentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. \nGentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough \nseas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 11N to 25N \nbetween 106W and 118W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Rachel Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.7W \nthis evening, 20.5N 115.8W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.5W Mon evening,\n20.7N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.9N 120.5W Tue evening, and 21.3N \n122.2W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near \n22.2N 125.2W early Thu. Rough seas generated by Rachel will \ncontinue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N\nto 27N between 105W and 120W the remainder of the weekend before\nstarting to shift westward along with the system.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1215882791938949127", "issued": "2026-10-04T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1215882791938949127"}