{"id": "1215871010984460295", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "msg": "012\nWTPA42 PHFO 041439\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  56\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Oct 04 2026\n \nNolo appears to have completed an eyewall replacement cycle \novernight. The satellite presentation has steadily improved over the \npast several hours, with the eyewall re-consolidating and a \nsymmetric ring of deep convection now completely wrapping around the \ncenter. Over the past 6 hours, the eye has cleared drastically, \ntransitioning from a ragged appearance to a distinct, circular, \nwarming eye with temperatures near 15C. Objective satellite \nintensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have begun to respond to this \nimprovement, and are in the 94-97 kt range. Based on the improved \nsatellite presentation and these objective estimates, the initial \nintensity is raised to 100 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/16 kt. Nolo \nis expected to continue on a generally westward heading for the next \nseveral days, steered by a subtropical ridge located to the north of \nthe cyclone. On the current forecast track, the system will cross \nthe International Date Line into the western Pacific basin within \nthe next 12 hours. By the end of the period, Nolo is forecast to \nreach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge and begin to \nslow down. Track forecast uncertainty increases at that time, as the \nguidance diverges regarding exactly when and where the cyclone will \nslow down and turn north in response to a mid-latitude trough \napproaching from Japan. The latest NHC track forecast has been \nshifted slightly southward, trending toward the HCCA and GDMI aids.\n \nNolo remains situated within a highly favorable environment for \nstrengthening during the next 24 hours, characterized by warm sea \nsurface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Given the recent \nstructural improvements noted in satellite imagery, the official NHC \nintensity forecast indicates further intensification and lies above \nthe intensity guidance in the short term. Between 24-36 h, the \ncyclone is forecast to move into a region of increasing shear and \ninto a drier mid-level airmass. However, recent satellite imagery \nindicates that Nolo is taking on annular characteristics. This \nstructural evolution should make the inner core more resilient to \nthe impending hostile conditions by limiting dry air entrainment, \nlikely resulting in a slower initial rate of weakening than would \notherwise be expected. Ultimately, the combination of strong shear \nand very dry air will take its toll, causing the system to steadily \nweaken beyond 48 hours. Given these structural and environmental \nconditions, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the high side of \nthe guidance envelope. This prediction is closest to the hurricane \nregional models, but still above those, before trending back toward \nthe consensus intensity aids by the end of the forecast period.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/1500Z 23.8N 178.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 24.3N 178.9E  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 24.9N 175.8E  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 25.0N 172.4E  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 25.0N 168.4E  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  07/0000Z 25.3N 164.0E   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 25.9N 160.0E   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 26.9N 153.1E   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 28.6N 150.0E   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}