{"id": "1215870122482434055", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-04T15:00:00Z", "msg": "967\nWTPZ43 KNHC 041435\nTCDEP3\n \nHurricane Rachel Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n800 AM MST Sun Oct 04 2026\n \nRachel has strengthened a little more this morning. Satellite\nimages indicate that the eye has become slightly more distinct, and\nthe inner core is well organized. The convective pattern is not\ncompletely symmetric, however, with the coldest cloud tops\ncurrently located to the north and west of the eye. The latest\nsatellite intensity estimates range from 80 to about 100 kt, and\nbased on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 90 kt.\nThe initial wind radii have been adjusted based on ASCAT data from\nlast night.\n\nThe hurricane is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A \nhigh pressure system to the north of Rachel should cause the system \nto turn westward by tonight, and move slowly in that direction \nthrough the middle of the week. After that time, the high is \nexpected to weaken and shift eastward as a trough cuts off near the \nsouthern California coast, which should allow Rachel to turn back \nto the west-northwest. The NHC track forecast is nudged slightly to \nthe north and is a little slower than the previous one, trending \ntoward the latest GDMI and HCCA guidance.\n\nGiven the improved satellite appearance, Rachel will likely \nmaintain its strength today. However, as the hurricane moves \nfarther west, it will be entering a progressively drier airmass and \nmoving over sub 26C waters in a couple of days. Therefore, steady \nweakening is forecast to begin on Monday. The NHC intensity \nforecast lies generally near the middle of the guidance envelope, \nand is largely an update of the previous one. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  04/1500Z 20.2N 113.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 20.3N 114.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 20.5N 115.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  07/0000Z 20.9N 120.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 21.3N 122.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 22.2N 125.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 22.8N 127.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}